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Week 15 Picks

bobby | Gambling, Football | Sunday, December 14th, 2008

Best Player in the NFL, Part III, Week 14 Picks…

bobby | Gambling, Fantasy Sports, Football, Football | Saturday, December 6th, 2008

(NFL - 12 = x) Part III…

Obviously, I always consider my fantasy football leagues the best in existence. I use the point-per-reception format, award one points per 10 yards rushing and receiving, and six points per touchdown. I believe this format truly rewards the highest-performing players in the NFL. Some people don’t believe in PPR, but I think it’s the only way to reward go-to guys in the league. If someone catches 12 passes in a game for 100 yards, isn’t he more valuable to his team than a guy (say, Bernard Berrian for example) who catches two passes for 100 yards? All those first downs and progressive yardage gains? Especially for running backs, these catches should be rewarded with one point a piece, in my opinion. That being said, here are the top 10 fantasy backs in my league this season (through week 13):

1. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears: 232 Fantasy Points (1012 Rushing Yards, 6 TD, 48 Receptions, 358 Receiving Yards, 4 TD)

2. Thomas Jones, New York Jets: 217 (1088, 11, 27, 161, 2)

3. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys: 215 (870, 7, 47, 366, 2)

4. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: 201 (1311, 9, 18, 94)

5. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: 200 (552, 11, 43, 415)

6. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers: 197 (955, 11, 18, 112, 2)

6. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins: 197 (1228, 7, 23, 187)

8. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons: 195 (1208, 13, 4, 11)

8. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans: 195 (904, 8, 34, 250, 1)

10. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers: 194 (926, 6, 39, 354, 1)

There’s your top-10 performing backs this season: 2 rookies, 4 first-year starters (Not including rookies: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner) and no LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai or Brian Westbrook.

At the very least, Westbrook is #11 with 193 fantasy points, and LDT is just behind him with 192. However, Steven Jackson ranks 27th with 130 points, and Joseph Addai (granted because of injuries) is ranked 35th overall. Addai, with 113 points is behind even his teammate Dominic Rhodes.

Obviously, there is much more to a running back than stats. A huge part of a back’s game which there is no way to track is pass blocking. There are some running backs in the league who take this incredibly seriously, such as LDT, MJD and Kevin Faulk. Then there are some, like Shaun Alexander before people realized he was a fraud, who would rather get a head start getting in line for Gatorade on 3rd down than trying to take on a linebacker coming free off the edge or flare out for an outlet pass.

Because of the many, many factors and arguments that could be involved in this discussion, I simplified this as much as possible by coming up with the three running backs I feel are the most complete players, and explanations as to why they’re there.
And heeere… Weee… Go!

3. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys:

A do-it-all guy.  “Marion the Barbarian” is a bruising back with the mindset of a hard-hitting free safety.  Never one for fancy running, there may be no player in the NFL (save for Brandon Jacobs) who elicits such fear in the hearts of would-be tacklers.

A part of his game, surprisingly outstanding because of his smash-mouth style, is his talents as a receiving threat out of the backfield.  His 47 catches are second only to Matt Forte, and he leads all running backs in receiving yards (Although to be fair, Reggie Bush had comfortable leads in both categories before injuring his knee).

Averaging just under 4 yards a carry and just under 8 yards per catch and never shying away from laying a devastating block or two, Marion Barber sits at #3 on my ultimate running back depth chart.

2.  LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers:

A down-season (From my calculation, mostly due to Philip Rivers learning how to throw downfield instead of having to throw to LDT 75 times per year) for LDT is still very good for the future Hall of Famer.  Sure, his stats aren’t what they were, and he’s another year older, and we all know running back 29 is normal guy 36, but this guy is still the class of NFL running backs.

Whether it be cutting up the field, bowling over safeties, flying over the offensive line for a touchdown, taking screen passes for scores or staying back to take on the toughest of pass rushers, there’s still no one who has done it as consistently as LaDainian Tomlinson for several years now.

1.  Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

The only one out of these three currently averaging over 4 yards per carry, Jones-Drew is beyond a doubt the most versatile running back in the NFL.  He’s a human highlight reel of bone-crushing blocks on linebackers twice his size (Anyone remember him pancaking Shawne Merriman coming in on a blitz last season?  Impossible to forget.  Whether helped or hindered by his short stature (”Pocket Hercules” stands an unimposing 5′7″ but packs 208 pounds into a body of solid muscle), he’s one of the best goalline and short-yardage backs in the game.

In addition to being able to power through defensive players, he possesses break-away speed that seems physically impossible for legs that don’t measure much longer than your common table lamp.  His 43 catches are just a few off the league lead, and averaging almost 10 yards per catch is something even quite a few wide receivers would be envious of.

As if that weren’t enough, his skills as a kick returner rival the best in the game.  Brushing off the sterotypical view of a kick returner (Lean, fast guys who can outrun scared deer but with no other specialized skills), the diminutive rising star cuts, dashes and flat-out runs over those that oppose him.  And when someone does get their arms around him, he’s one of the toughest guys to tackle possibly in the history of the sport.

Yes, it’s up for debate, and everyone has a different opinion.  And, yes, it was insanely difficult for me to keep Brian Westbrook off this list (I still may replace Barber with Westbrook as I type this).  But, if I were building a franchise and needed a stud running back, there is no one right now I would rather have than Maurice Jones-Drew.  The most dangerous back in the NFL.


SAN DIEGO (-9 1/2) over Oakland
CHICAGO (-6 1/2) over Jacksonville
Minnesota (E) over DETROIT
Houston (+5 1/2) over GREEN BAY
TENNESSEE (-13 1/2) over Cleveland
Cincinnati (+13 1/2) over INDIANAPOLIS
Atlanta (+3) over NEW ORLEANS
Philadelphia (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS
BUFFALO (-1) over Miami
DENVER (-9) over Kansas City
SAN FRANCISCO (+4) over New York Jets
SEATTLE (+4 1/2) over New England
ARIZONA (-14) over St. Louis
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Dallas
BALTIMORE (-5) over Washington
CAROLINA (-3) over Baltimore

Last Week:
Me: 9-7
LVK: 5-11

Season:
Me: 80-89
LVK: 84-85

Whoops Picks…

bobby | Gambling, Football | Monday, December 1st, 2008

Yeah so it turns out my turkey hangover and friend Craig’s bachelor party prevented me from turning in my football picks on time. So, what I’m going to do is write my picks, why the majority of them were wrong, then bitch for a while as I tally up my girlfriend’s inevitable winning total wins.

On with the explanations… Home team in caps…

BUFFALO (-7) over San Francisco

No-brainer, right? A slightly less-than-mediocre west coast team going cross-country to play an AFC East team in a place that usually provides ridiculous wintertime home field advantage. Marshawn Lynch should have torn up that team in the cold and the Bills should have easily handled the 49ers. The result? a 10-3 San Francisco win for absolutely no reason. Yeah, I guess I should have seen that coming…

1-3

Baltimore (-7) over CINCINNATI

I stuck with my “Never pick Cincy under any circumstances this season while Marvin Lewis and Chad Ocho Cinco Johnson Wellington III still occupy the same zip code. Effective so far, especially against a defense as good as Baltimore’s.

2-3

CLEVELAND (+4 1/2) over Indianapolis

I had no idea what to make of this game, as a bad Browns team was starting to rally around their new quarterback, then lost him for the year, then started last year’s stud Derek Anderson, then lost him for the year. I’m not even sure who finished the game at quarterback for the Browns, but once again Indy was not able to unleash their offense against a questionable (and I use that term not only lightly, but as a compliment) defense. Against the spread Indy was close, but no cigar.

3-3

GREEN BAY (-3) over Carolina

I really thought I had this pick right when I made it. Green Bay’s defense was playing bend-but-don’t-break, opportunistic defense and very good offense and had home field in cold weather on their side against a mostly warm-weather team. Unfortunately, Carolina’s completely unpredictable season reared its ugly head against me once again.

3-4

Miami (E) over ST. LOUIS

This was what I thought an easy pick which turned out to be an extremely close game. But, the result should have been easy for everyone to see. Aside from the one good run St. Louis went on this season, they are an awful-yet-rebuilding-so-watch-out-for-them-inthenextfew-years team. But as for now? I’m pretty sure Miami’s incessant Wildcat offensive attack could confuse them enough to win this game in their Domepiece.

4-4

New Orleans (+3 1/2) over TAMPA BAY

I was really proud of this pick, as I saw that Reggie Bush was going to be back (even when he’s limited, he demands attention on the field), and Marques Colston is returning to full strength.  Despite Tampa Bay’s refusal to stop playing good defense besides not having a single big star on the starting team (lest you count Ronde Barber and Barrett Ruud), I had a feeling they would not be able to outscore the Saints to the tune of four or more points.  Even though they almost did, I’m taking credit for a win that came directly from my internal assessment of the matchup.  Sue me.

5-4

WASHINGTON (+3 1/2) over New York Giants

I know, I know, I really have to stop being bitter toward the Giants.  Eli Manning is really good, and their defense is very, very good despite losing many key players.  It is killing me this season, but I am going to have to admit they’re a great team, and they may just repeat this year.  For those of you that don’t know me well, I just banged my head against my coffee table 8 times.  For those of you that do, you know exactly what corner I banged it off of.

5-5

ATLANTA (+5) over San Diego

San Diego’s season this year makes me terrified of New England’s reported upcoming trip to London to play a regular season game next year.  If losing Brady this year wasn’t enough, now we’ll have to take the two-week ruining (at least) trip to England to play in front of a crowd that cheers the kickers louder than any other players because it’s the only fragment of the game that reminds them of soccer.  God, I hate this NFL international outreach program.

6-5

Kansas City (+3) over OAKLAND

Okay, Oakland’s not terrible, but would anyone in their right mind take them to cover as a favorite?  I mean, really?

7-5

NEW ENGLAND (-1) over Pittsburgh

This was a tough call, but I really did think New England would make this a “must-win” situation in their minds and pull this one out.  However, New England chose to have its worst game of the season this week, and proved me completely wrong.  I have no defense for this, and apparently New England chose not to have one this week either.  No, I’m not bitter.  I swear!  Well… Maybe a little.

7-6

Denver (+7 1/2) over NEW YORK JETS

I actually saw most of this game coming, to be perfectly honest.  I had a feeling Thomas Jones would run all over Denver’s undersized defense, but Denver’s passing game would ultimately outscore and prevail on Sunday.  It’s a lot easier to say now, but I saw this one coming alllll along…

8-6

Chicago (+3) over MINNESOTA

Call me crazy, but was I alone in thinking that what I believe to be the best defense in the NFL would be able to come up with a scheme to stop Minnesota’s running game, leaving it to Tavairis Jackson to beat them?  And then, in turn, intercept him at least six times, three of which for touchdowns?  How did this team put up 34 points!?  This had to have been like the New England game in which the team simply had its worst game of the season.  That’s the only  explanation I can think of.  Anyone else?  Minnesota can’t be that good, can they?

8-7

HOUSTON (-3) over Jacksonville

Jacksonville has been so severely underperforming this season it is hard for me to believe they will go into Houston on Monday Night Football and make a game out of this one.  Houston’s high-powered offense led by Matt Schaub (replaced nearly every game at some point by Sage Rosenfels), Andre Johnson and rookie standout Steve Slaton should prevent matchup problems throughout the game, and be able to hold the Jaguars’ offense, unable to get off the ground all season, to a minimum on the national stage.  And, look at that!  I even got the late picks in before Monday Night Football!

Coming Later This Week:  “The Best Running Back in the NFL”