I figured this week I would post these picks before the actual games were played, just so everyone knows I didn’t cheat when I go 3-for-3. Without further ado…

Tennessee (-11) at Detroit

I hope everyone is ready for this: My absolute insanity upset special of the year. Not only am I taking the points in this game, I am officially picking Detroit to win this game outright. If you’re laughing right now and calling me crazy, that’s fine. However, I will say you’re not very original. Before you navigate away from this page laughing to yourself, hear me out. I have a few sound (depending on how far you can stretch the word ’sound’) reasons for calling this…

1.) Kerry Collins is due. I mean, come on. Does anyone really expect this guy to flawlessly lead the NFL’s best team all season? Would it be that much of a stretch to think Kerry Collins could be lulled into a false sense of security against the league’s worst scoring defense, throw a couple of badly-timed picks, and blow this game? Not outside the realm of possibility, right?

2.) The Thanksgiving Day Factor. For a historically terrible team, a 20-18 record on Thanksgiving in the last 38 years is tough to overlook, right? I mean, any time a team that loses most of its games has a winning record under certain circumstances, attention must be paid. Whether or not it would appear possible on paper, players react with a different intensity and level of concentration when on the national stage. I’ve seen enough Monday Night Football and playoff games (especially in the last 2-3 years of the NFL) that have proved anything can happen, and this game is no exception.

3.) Pre-season Predictions. Before this season, many people expected about the same output from the Titans and Lions. Vince Young was still developing as an NFL quarterback, and therefore expectations were tempered. Tennessee was supposed to be little more than a very, very good defense. The Lions were supposedly going to be an excellent offensive team behind an emerging superstar in Calvin Johnson in his second season, along with Roy Williams (lost to a trade), Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey catching passes from Jon Kitna (lost to injury, but may be addition by subtraction). Along with an efficient running game with the young and extremely talented Kevin Smith, the Lions could catch some eyes this season.

Though the season has turned out dramatically different so far, there were reasons behind these predictions, and the personnel (minus the aforementioned players) remain the same. Monster games from Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith could even the playing field a bit from what the Lions lack in defensive prowess. And by lack in defensive prowess, I mean lack in being able to stop anyone from doing anything at any time.

4.) Home Field Advantage. On a short week (Thursday game after a Sunday game for both teams), the Lions get the benefit of spending the better part of two weeks at home. The Titans, on the other hand, must factor in travel time to their already abbreviated preparation schedule. On short rest, this could be a much bigger deal than it would seem at first glance.

So what does it all mean? Probably nothing. Tennessee’s running backs probably rush for 340 combined yards and most of the crowd will leave for dinner before halftime. But, until it happens that way, I’m putting a little bit of money on Detroit. If they’re going to take someone by surprise this season, the pieces are in place for a Thanksgiving Day Miracle.

Pick: Lions

Seattle (+12 1/2) at Dallas

I’m so glad the Seahawks got Bobby Engram back (Another fantasy casualty on my endless list this season) so that Matt Hasselbeck could all but completely ignore him on his way to leading Seattle to a 2-9 record. What in the world is the plan in Seattle? Ignore everything that has worked in the last few years and tank the season for draft picks? If so, mission accomplished. Good work, chumps. I have nothing more to say to you! Good day!!

(Note: The author of this column would like to apologize for the nasty tone taken for the duration of the Seahawks-Cowboys preview. He’s really taking this year’s fantasy football disaster to heart. If you have children, you may want to have them skip over the Saints preview and the “Reggie Bush’s MCL” rant that will surely accompany it. Thank you for your patience and understanding.)

Pick: Cowboys

Arizona (+3) at Philadelphia

Well, I am watching this Tennessee-Detroit game right now, and with the score 28-3 with time remaining in the second quarter, it appears I may have swung and missed on this one.  But, you know what?  I took a swing and struck out, which at least makes me better than Mark Bellhorn.  However, I seriously doubt that Mark Bellhorn is a football prognosticator now so I’m going to assume he couldn’t care less.

After last week’s awful loss to Baltimore in which Donovan McNabb was temporarily benched, I now can’t seem to trust Philadelphia to do anything right for the rest of the year.  With three straight weeks of winless football (Including a humiliating fight to a draw with Cincinnati), the Eagles are headed for the bottom of the NFC East, and no one on that team even seems to care. I’d love to see how, even with a very good defensive backfield, a coach who is unclear on the rules of the game will gameplan against the league’s best receiving tandem in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. With Tennessee upping the score to 35-3 while I was writing this, I see three blowouts occurring today, with the Titans, ‘Boys and Cards all lighting up opposing defenses on a magical Thanksgiving feast of offense.

I officially apologize for my attempt at a ridiculous upset pick, and I’ll never try something like that again.  I wish my favorite player of all time, Barry Sanders never retired.  Even though he’s  40 years old now, he still has more talent than most of this Lions squad combined.  He would definitely make this game more interesting.  But alas, I have to watch Daunte Culpepper throw interceptions on attempted halfback screens.  I picked this team to win today?  Unbelievable…

Pick: Cardinals

This is an email from my cousin, Dud. It was so heartfelt, I felt it necessary to post it on the site…

Hi Bobby,

I looked up your “Miscellaneous” file.

I hope you are going to tie in actor Michael Chiklis this weekend.
He is a huge Pats fan, is often on “The Dennis and Callahan” show and introduced The Pats on Fox prior to the 2004-2005 Super Bowl.

Most importantly, this TUESDAY marks the end of THE SHIELD on F/X. This show was one of my favorites of all-time.
This TUESDAY, Chiklis’s “Vic Mackey” has reached the end.

A truly sad day for all SHIELD fans.

Obviously, there is nothing to tie in; THE SHIELD and THE PATS have nothing to do with one another, but, it’s solid comedy.
As “Bania” said in “Seinfeld”-”They’re Gold, Jerry, Gold.”

Mentioning Chiklis/THE SHIELD/VIC MACKEY in your miscellaneous file is GOLD, Bobby, GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks.

dud

Admittedly, I had never seen the Shield and was not able to tie it in effectively, but I thought I should let him get this off his chest. And I think we should all join him in saying goodbye to a true American Hero: Michael Chiklis from “The Shield.”

Before we get started with the week 12 picks, I need to get something off my chest:

Why isn’t anyone investigating last week’s San Diego-Pittsburgh game?

Week 11 contained one of the most profound moments in sports betting in the history of the National Football League. Pittsburgh’s 11-10 victory over the Chargers appears on paper to be a hard-fought, skin-of-the-teeth win, but it was so much more in the world of football, and gambling. And, almost undeniably, organized crime. Because to be perfectly honest, I can’t see another possible way that referee Scott Green could OVERTURN a play that resulted in a fumble and a Steelers’ touchdown that would have resulted in an 18-10 victory, instead of the 11-10 result.

Okay, so what’s your point?

The point is, this not-so-simple turn of events resulted in a swing of hundreds of thousands of dollars in Las Vegas’ direction because of the 4 point spread for this game, and the amount of money bet on Pittsburgh. With San Diego lobbing a bunch of terrible laterals trying to come up with a score in the closing seconds of the game, Troy Polamalu got his hands on one and ran it back for a touchdown, officially covering the spread for the Steel Curtain team. However, because it was in the final two minutes of the game, the play was reviewed by the officials. Because the play was ruled a touchdown on the field, the official had to find with certainty that one of these laterals was an illegal forward pass in order to rule the play dead and overturn the call. Mind you, the result would be the same either way: A Pittsburgh victory. So, no matter what the call, whether they got it right or wrong, the result is precisely the same for the players and teams. After looking at it for a short period of time, the official comes back to the field and OVERTURNS the play, with a mumbling, incoherent reasoning and absolutely no reference to which lateral was in fact the illegal forward pass.

Immediately following the game, Scott Green admitted the refs got the play wrong and the touchdown should have counted. Oh, well… right? We all make mistakes that cost gamblers thousands of dollars and make Vegas a guaranteed win for absolutely no reason at the end of a meaningless play that should have stayed but was inexplicably overturned. Happens almost every day.

If this happened in the NBA, there would be an absolute Class-5 hurricane firestorm of investigations, hearings, firings and inter-office fist fights occurring as we speak. Because it’s the NFL? Everyone makes mistakes. If I haven’t made myself clear enough: This was the sketchiest thing to happen in the NFL in my lifetime.

And now… On with the picks…

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Cincinnati (+10 1/2) at Pittsburgh

Yeah, it’s late. No, I don’t care, and I didn’t cheat. This one was easy.

Pick: Steelers

Houston (+3) at Cleveland

Cleveland is getting progressively better (finally) and the team seems to be rallying behind new starting man Brady Quinn. For this season? Still good for nothing. Unfortunately in the long run now they’ll be lucky to grab a 3rd round pick for Derek Anderson instead of the 1st they could have nabbed last season. Teams like this should secretly hire GMs from the Red Sox and/or Patriots to avoid these embarrassing and team-killing blunders in the future. Seriously, I wouldn’t even mind. I simply hate seeing teams squander great opportunities.
Pick: Browns

San Francisco (+10) at Dallas

Despite the loss of Felix Jones, Dallas is returning to full strength and absolutely needs to win this game. If the offense can pull it together and stop Frank Gore from running wild, they should be able to cover this spread with little hassle.
Pick: Cowboys

Tampa Bay (-8 1/2) at Detroit

Detroit. I’m just not sure if I even need to write any more than that anymore.

Pick: Buccaneers

New York Jets (+5 1/2) at Tennessee

The Titans are a great team. They’re defense is currently one of the top 3 in the NFL, and they’ve recently proved they can beat teams with more than just their multi-faceted running game. They will lose in the regular season, but not to this Jets team. Brett Favre will have to win this game on his own, as Thomas Jones will find no room to run from Albert Haynesworth & Co. And, against a solid secondary providing him few good opportunities, it will be an uphill battle both ways in the snow for him on Sunday. The X-Factor in this game is Dustin Keller. If DK can get open underneath enough, it may just open it up enough for the Jets’ homerun hitters (Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery). It’s a long shot, but it could happen. But… It won’t.

Pick: Titans

Buffalo (-3) at Kansas City

It’s recently come to my attention by owning him in numerous fantasy leagues that Lee Evans is becoming an afterthought in the Bills’ offense. What I would love to know is, since Lee Evans isn’t catching the passses for this team, than who exactly is? I’d love to know what player is taking catches away from the fastest and most talented player on their team, while the Bills have lost their last four games. I’d LOVE to know what the strategy is behind this. If I lose one more crucial fantasy player this season to injury, suspension or inexplicable disappearance, I’m just going to lose my mind.

Pick: Chiefs

Chicago (-8 1/2) at St. Louis

Originally, I had the Rams defending their home turf by a touchdown or less, but with Orton back for the Bears, Jackson out for the Rams, and the distinct possibility that the same Rams team that has been playing all season will indeed show up to play again on Sunday… Yeeeaaah…

Pick: Bears

New England (+1) at Miami

The talk around here in Patriots Country has been regarding the Patriots hopes of making the playoffs if they end up losing this game for whatever reason. I’ve heard words like “devastating” and “wildcard spot” at that prospect, and they haven’t exactly registered with me yet. How in the world did we operate before the division was a foregone conclusion long before the season was over? I simply can’t comprehend a world in which the Patriots don’t get to the playoffs easily, and advance to the next round by beating their opponent into oblivion. This pessimism in Patriot Nation is something I haven’t experienced since before Tom Brady took office in early 2001. It’s really heartbreaking! But, on the bright side, the Patriots will win this game, and I’m calling a two-touchdown win. Belichick will find a way to use the Wildcat formation to his advantage, and I see at least one defensive touchdown coming in this game. Just watch. You’ll see.

Pick: Patriots

Minnesota (+2 1/2) at Jacksonville

These are two teams that have deeply saddened me this season. I had high hopes for both of them, as the teams had great offseasons, either adding key players through the draft or through trading or free agent pickups, and both teams were good last year. However, their lack of a few key components has hurt them more than I ever could have imagined, with both teams in third place in their respective divisions and hovering around or just under .500. One would think this game would have presented one of the greatest match-ups of the year, with two premiere running backs going head-to-head, but whether they’re missing a quarterback, wide receivers, defensive backs or some other crucial part of their game, now it will simply be another boring game between two teams almost certain to miss the playoffs. I’m bored just writing about it.
Pick: Jaguars

Philadelphia (+1) at Baltimore

A friend of mine this week asked me my opinion on a betting sheet in which he had to pick the winners of every game from week 12. When I got to this game, I stopped. He had Philadelphia going into Baltimore and beating the Ravens, and I couldn’t help but ask him how he could have come to this conclusion. Now, if you know me and you know my writing, I hate Baltimore. I thought Brian Billick was an idiot (and I’m not so sure the Ravens ownership didn’t also think this), I have always thought Ray Lewis was overrated, their defense, while extremely talented, is the biggest group of trash-talking whiners in the entire game, and until they let Joe Flacco take the reigns, their quarterbacks were like watching someone crush their own foot in a Vice grip for no reason. That didn’t even make any sense. ANYWAY, I just couldn’t see any way in which Philly walks into that stadium, takes on that defense, outlasts them THROUGH the 4th quarter and wins this game. And, god forbid it goes into overtime, this Philadelphia team is simply not ready to go 60 minutes with a defense as good as this one.
Pick: Ravens

Oakland (+9 1/2) at Denver

The last time these two teams played each other, Denver won in a rout, 41-14. And that was without Brandon Marshall.
Pick: Broncos

Carolina (+1) at Atlanta

I’m almost glad someone emailed Steve Smith and Santana Moss the article I wrote in which I called both of them too washed up and inconsistent to be considered for high-round fantasy drafting, because it’s fun watching them be good receivers again. But aside from that, has any team in the NFL been as much fun to watch this year as the Atlanta Falcons led by B.C. star Matt Ryan? After watching their beloved dog-fighting secret compartment with weed water bottle-sneaking quarterback go down the tubes of the legal system, who better to lead them out of that kind of depression than a crazy-talented kid from the sports capital of the world with oodles of charisma and enough marketability to go around. It’s just a great story this season. But, they’re still losing to Carolina this week. Sorry.
Pick: Panthers

New York Giants (-3) at Arizona

This is an upset I’m not going to miss out on. Yes, I realize it’s not that much of an upset, but with Brandon Jacobs hurting and Plaxico Burress becoming less effective by the week for some unknown reason, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald & Co. should be able to simply outscore the Giants this week. In addition, I refuse to give up on my pre-season position that the Giants are overrated and their defense will not be that good this year. It could still happen!
Pick: Cardinals

Washington (-3) at Seattle

Washington is the only team above .500 in the NFL besides Denver whose net point total is in the red. What does this mean? I have no idea. Who am I going with? Not the team who has to travel across the country for this game. Why? I have no idea. In conclusion, no one cares about this game, so why should I?

Pick: Seahawks

Indianapolis (+3) at San Diego

I never know what to make of these two teams. They always play each other tough, and they always seem to play a game that is disntinctly not their own. Each team messes with the other’s heads so badly that it turns into a turnover-filled disaster that consistently ends up one of the more fun games to watch during the entire season. I’m picking the home team because that’s the only thing that’s for sure today.
Pick: Chargers

Green Bay (+2 1/2) at New Orleans

Green Bay started off the season with a terrible run defense and a great passing game. Now, toward the end of the season, they’ve seemed to even out a little bit on both sides of the ball, and their defense seems to come up with at least one tremendous play throughout the course of every game. With Reggie Bush still not a sure thing to play (If I win one playoff match this season it’ll be a friggin’ miracle), I wouldn’t put it past Green Bay going into New Orleans and winning this game and putting the clamps on this power New Orleans offense.
Pick: Packers

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Last Week:Me: 9-7
LVK: 9-7
Season:Me: 71-82
LVK: 79-72

This week I’ve decided to discuss wide receivers.  There are so many high-performance vehicles out there in the world of wide receivers, it is hard to narrow it down to someone who can be considered the best.  Last season, we had Randy Moss break the single-season receiving touchdown mark held by Jerry Rice (It should be mentioned, however, that Rice set the record in only 12 games, but had many opportunities before and after that to break his own record).  Terrell Owens’ and Marvin Harrison’s lifetime achievements are among the greats who have ever played the game, but both are past their respective primes, and Terrell Owens drops too many passes to be a top-5 guy on my personal list.

Here’s a list of receivers I believe could be argued into the top five, depending on who you’re talking to, and what team they are a fan of:

Andre Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Greg Jennings, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Steve Smith, Santana Moss, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall.

These are currently the top performing receivers in the game.  A couple of names I would tend to dismiss right away because of a lack of experience or extreme inconsistency are Santana Moss and Calvin Johnson.  Although, in Johnson’s case, I would credit his awful team more with his lack of legitimate receiving numbers to put him on this list, rather than his inexperience.  With even a decent quarterback throwing him the ball, he could be right up there.

The ideal receiver doesn’t exist in a single person, but would possess a few characteristics of different receivers in the NFL, for example:

Hands:  Kevin Faulk, as far as I can tell, has the best hands in the entire National Football League.  In all of my years watching football, I’ve never seen a player show such a staggering variety of improbably catches.  Kevin Faulk can catch balls that are darting at him at approximately 90mph into his inconveniently bouncy chest pads.  He’s caught numerous balls that if not for her perfect receiving fingers, would bounce off the tops of his shoes and likely be intercepted by a 300-something pound lineman.  He’s caught balls thrown a yard behind his forward motion, only to throw one arm out, tip it back to himself, have it bounce of numerous other parts of his body, and finally coming to rest in a cradled arm by his side.  He has dived for bad balls, plucking them from incomplete-status just nanoseconds before they brush the blades of grass below.  And most importantly, he never misses the rare times when a perfect pass will float his way and hit him in stride, and almost always has an acute awareness of where the first down marker is, and he gets there.  I simply don’t know how he does it, but he does.  I personally believe Kevin Faulk (Three Super Bowl rings were enough for people to agree that Brady was a Hall of Famer, how much does this phenomenon effect the vital role players of the team?) should eventually be voted into the Hall of Fame, but that is a conversation for another day.

Routes:  Whether this comes with age and experience, or whether these guys simply always possessed uncanny skills in the area, Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison are the best route-runners since probably Jerry Rice.  Unfortunately since their respective teams have apparently forgotten that they still start on offense for them, they can’t possibly be included on this list.  These are types of guys, however, that can have a telestrated line of the textbook route they are about to run drawn on the screen, and they wouldn’t waiver a step.  If they ever had to walk a line during a field sobriety test, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them ace with flying colors, as long as they could request to walk a post or fly pattern.

Speed:  These are the guys that get open because of pure speed and quickness.  Usually, this group includes a lot of crazy-good, crazy-small players that slip in and out of coverage almost undetected.  Examples in the game right now include Steve Smith, Wes Welker, DeSean Jackson, Lee Evans and Steve Breaston.  They couldn’t dunk with a stepladder and a 6-inch diameter Nerf basketball, but they can get open as if there’s no coverage at all on them, and usually run after the catch. It’s not limited to diminutive receivers, however, as I would certainly include Randy Moss, Greg Jennings, Terrell Owens, Anquan Boldin and Calvin Johnson in this group.  Ironically, this group also includes some of the bravest (and therefore, dumbest) receivers in the game, running head-first into linebackers twice their weight in order to get the extra two-and-a-half yards needed for a first down on third-and-8 in a game-tying drive in the 4th quarter.  AKA:  Go-to-Guys.

Strength and Jumping:  An undervalued part of a receivers game.  These two usually fit together, because when a receiver needs to use his strength the most is usually going for a jump ball and wrestling it away from a pesky corner in man coverage or a wild safety who will fight to the death for any chance at an interception (e.g. Rodney Harrison, Troy Polamalu, Adrian Wilson…).  There are a lucky few receivers who possess the strength, size and jumping ability to come down with almost any pass, against even the best of backs such as Antonio “Let me Just Grab This” Cromartie, such as Anquan Boldin, Chad Johnson, James Hardy, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Terrell Owens (If he can actually catch it), and, surprisingly for his thin frame, Randy Moss.

Smarts:  There are some receivers in the game who simply outsmart everyone on the field when they’re playing.  This is a much smaller field, as many receivers have large egos to accompany their insane statistics.  Throughout college ball and practices, many are likely to ignore advice from coaches, and especially other receivers, relying on their god-given ability to let their accomplishments play out on the field.  These players include, but are not limited to:  Wes Welker, Randy Moss (Any coincidence the smartest coach in the game got these two guys together?), T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Larry Fitzgerald, Troy Brown (Hey, he only retired this year, I’m still counting him in this group because he may have been the smartest receiver in this decade), Reggie Bush (Yup), Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt (The textbook route-runners, not a coincidence either), Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten (Tight ends are forced to out-wit defensive players because of an assortment of packages they run including pass-blocking, run blocking, short and deep routes and the different types of defenders they match up against (Linemen, linebackers, corners and safeties all will have an assignment to cover a tight end at some point in a game, depending on the player’s release).

Bringing all these attributes together is something that would seem like an impossibly difficult task, but here are the top 5 guys that I believe do the best job of it, and their stats (and NFL rank) this season:

5.  Wes Welker, New England Patriots - 72 catches (2nd), 781 yards (11th), 1 TD.  Possesses smarts, speed (and filthy quickness - different from speed in that kind of “I just had him in my sights, where the $()*&@ did he go!?” type of way), hands and route running.  Also has an shocking ability to whack a linebacker in the chest backward two yards on his way to a hard-earned first down.  On pace to break his own franchise record of 112 catches with the only thing being thrown by Tom Brady is money at his supermodel girlfriend.

4.  Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals - 67 catches (4th), 939 yards (2nd), 6 TD. Possesses speed, route-running, hands, size/strength/jumping ability.  One of the most physically gifted receivers I’ve seen in my lifetime, save for the guy on the opposite side of the field.

3.  Andre Johnson, Houston Texans - 71 catches (3rd), 955 yards (1st), 3 TD.  Possesses ridiculous speed, route-running, hands, s/s/ja and smarts.  Has been able to produce pro-bowl type numbers even with David Carr at the helm for the beginning of his career.  One of those receivers, however, who we will always have to wonder about:  What would he do with a HOF-type QB?

2.  T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals - 77 catches (1st), 746 yards (9th), 4 TD.  Possesses unique speed and quickness, smarts (and genius when compared to his co-star Chad Ocho-Stinko), pristine route-running, and great hands.  His 77 catches, some from Carson Palmer, and many others from a guy who I can never remember whether he’s Ryan Fitzpatrick or Patrick Fitzryan, prove he is the premiere pass-catching go-to guy in the game.  The only thing that bugs me about this guy is everyone in professional sports coverage staunch refusal to pronounce his name correctly, despite the fact its spelled out phonetically.

1.  Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals -  62 catches (6th), 792 yards (7th), 10 TD (1st).  Possesses break-neck speed and quickness, smarts, route-running, Faulk-like hands and an unparalleled size/strength/jumping ability that makes him the Alpha and Omega of goal line receivers.  His fearless patrol of the middle of the field, speed to win a footrace downfield, hands to catch a ball thrown anywhere at any speed, and the physical gifts to rip a ball away from anyone, anywhere (especially in the end zone) make Anquan Boldin the best receiver in the game today.  Boldin’s unique natural ability, respect and love for the game and its intricacies, along with his Will Smith in “Pursuit of Happyness” workmanship are enough for me to bestow this title on him.

So there you go.  It’s my list, and I’m sticking to it.  I know fans of other receivers will be livid with the exclusion of certain names, so here’s some advice for a few of them…

Steve Smith:  More consistency, stop sucker-punching teammates and running your mouth about watching yourself on NFL Network when you should be paying attention to the game.

Terrell Owens:  Stop dropping easily catchable passes, then celebrating like a “Dance for Pennies” street performer when you actually grab one for a score.

Randy Moss:  What happened to you “Jump to the Moon” special move?  Haven’t seen it at all this season, and smaller defensive backs are starting to make you look a little bad.  Play like your money depends on it, and you could be right back at the top of this list.

Roddy White, Marques Colston, Greg Jennings and especially Calvin Johnson:  You’re well on your way.

Reggie Wayne:  You barely missed being #5, and that may or may not be just because you’re a Colt and Wes is a Patriot.  But with Marvin disappearing from the game plans, you should be setting the NFL on fire right now.  Better get on that if you want to breach the list next year…

Picks column tomorrow…

Look, I’m putting some work into this (Best Player in the NFL - Tom Brady = x) equation, so I forgot to take any notes on who was playing each other today. Let’s fly through these…

Thursday’s game: I got it wrong… No comment…

Sunday:

Denver (+6) at Atlanta

Matt Ryan will get to continue his impressive (and increasingly unopposed) run at offensive rookie of the year bid against one of the league’s worst pass defenses.

Pick: Falcons

Philadelphia (-9) at Cincinnati

I have no idea what to make of either of these teams after 10 weeks in the NFL. Philly can’t finish off anyone in the 4th quarter, Cincy can’t figure out if they’re playing a preseason game or going to attempt a real season, and I wouldn’t put money on either of them to cover any kind of spread over a touchdown, especially when you’re the visiting team. No way, no how.

Pick: Bengals

Chicago (E) at Green Bay

This game is the most intriguing of the week to me. I can see a blowout either way, and I can absolutely see a close, defensive struggle in which this matchup comes down to Robbie Gould vs. Mason Crosby. I can also see choosing not to watch this game because Rex Grossman has turned it into a laugher with 4 interceptions in the first half.

Pick: Packers

Houston (+8) at Indianapolis

With Indianapolis on the downside of a long run near the top of the NFL (We may be talking about the coming-down of the Indianapolis dynasty right now if Drew Bledsoe never got almost killed against the Jets in ‘01), this Houston-Indianapolis rivalry may turn into one of the best in football. And, as any Red Sox or Yankees fan knows, you never pick one team to win in a landslide. The games will be long, exhausting, close and probably result in more than one fight.

Pick: Texans

New Orleans (-5 1/2) at Kansas City

This spread can’t be big enough for how bad New Orleans is going to make the Chiefs’ secondary look today. Even with Reggie Bush missing one more week, Marques Colston may break the single-game receiving mark against a Chiefs D allowing over 400 yards per contest (Good for dead last in the NFL).

Pick: Saints

Oakland (+10 1/2) at Miami

This is a game where anyone could win, anything could happen, and anyone could be the star of the game. And still, no one will care.

Pick: Raiders

Baltimore (+6 1/2) at New York Giants

I love Baltimore’s defense this season. However they’ve done it, they’ve managed to revitalize this aging defense into one of the NFL’s elite yet again. I see Brandon Jacobs being taken completely out of this game, and Eli Manning having to do it all himself against a ballhawking, experienced Ravens secondary. Even if the Giants pull this off, it’ll be a squeaker.

Pick: Ravens

Minnesota (+3 1/2) at Tampa Bay

Is it just me, or is Tampa Bay the most boring team to watch in the entire NFL? If anyone has any answer to this question, or a rebuttal or counter-point, I’d love to hear it. Someone explain to me why this team is doing decently and take a shot at convincing me they have any chance whatsoever to get out of the first round of the playoffs if they even make it there. Go for it, I dare you!

Pick: Vikings

Detroit (+14) at Carolina

Okay, I know Carolina has been playing well this season, and Detroit is terrible. But really, 14 points? This is a spread we’re used to seeing after New England or Indianapolis! Is Jake Delhomme, and Co. capable of covering two touchdowns against a team that used to have Barry Sanders?! …Yeah, actually they probably are.

Pick: Panthers

St. Louis (+6 1/2) at San Francisco

Fresh off one of the worst regular season games ever played last week against the Jets, the Rams are looking to rebound against a much more beatable 49ers team. They won’t.

Pick: 49ers

Arizona (-3) at Seattle

Bobby Engram moves back to his more comfortable spot in the slot this week, where he caught over 90 balls for over 1,000 yards last season, against Arizona. With Hasselbeck still out, however, it makes so little difference it’s not even worth talking about. I just felt like mentioning it since my auction league is suffering because of it. And Reggie Bush being out, AGAIN. And, has Tom Brady returned to practice yet? Derrick Mason is questionable??? What the hell is wrong with my auction team!?

Pick:  Cardinals

San Diego (+4 1/2) at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh will find a way to stop LD today at Heinz field, which puts the pressure on Philip Rivers. With snow showers and winds expected in Pittsburgh today at game time, my money’s on the D.

Pick: Steelers

Tennesse (-3) at Jacksonville

The Jaguars are in disarray, with the team decision to bench team captain Mike Peterson for insubordination. However, I see the Jaguars pulling together to fight hard against this flawed-but-perfect-so-far Titans team. Who am I kidding. The Titans won’t go undefeated, but they’re definitely beating this Jags team today.

Pick: Titans

Dallas (-1 1/2) at Washington

With Tony Romo back, with weapons like Roy Williams, TO, Jason Witten, Marion Barber and Felix Jones around him, they will be able to get back on the winning and loving it track this week in Washington. And, for the love of god, THROW THE BALL TO ROY! HE’S A CRAZY TALENT THAT WAS STUCK IN DETROIT FOR HIS WHOLE CAREER!! PLEASE LET US SEE WHAT HE CAN DO IN THE REAL NFL!!! PLEASE!!!!

Pick: Cowboys

Monday:

Cleveland (+5) at Buffalo

I really like Cleveland, and their players, and especially their coach, but Buffalo is going to kill them at home on Monday Night Football. Brady Quinn was the right move for this team, but the kid’s going to need some time. Let’s hope they can give it to him, and still get something for Derek Anderson.

Pick: Bills

Last Week:

Me: 3-11
LVK: 6-8
Season:

Me: 62-75
LVK: 70-65

The prevailing thought for the last few years is that Tom Brady, the Golden Boy quarterback of the only dynastic team of the new millenium, was the best player in the NFL.  With his season ending before time expired in the first quarter of the first game of this season, now prevailing thinkers don’t know what to think, or to prevail!

So in an NFL universe that doesn’t include Tom Brady, who is the best player?  In the next few weeks, I’ll be taking a look at the skill positions, comparing the best of the best, and find who is the best of the rest.

Quarterbacks

There are at bare minimum, 200 different aspects of this position that go into making a player great.  Tom Brady has approximately 199 of these.  I would take pure foot speed out of his column, simply because I’m not sure he could have outrun Joe Paterno before his knee injury, never mind now.  Some would argue his mobility within the pocket is so incomparably good that you could consider him a mobile quarterback, but that’s not what we’re here to argue.

In terms of star quality, the competitors are clear:  Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Brett Favre and Eli Manning.  However, only two I’d actually take from this list for competing for the “Best player alive except for Tom Brady” Award.  Here are the guys that were cut, and the reasons I had for doing so.

Donovan McNabb:  If the NFL were “Mortal Kombat,” Donovan McNabb would have a “finishing move” that involved throwing an object at the opponent that sails twenty feet too high, then vomiting on himself and falling down.  In other words, McNabb is not clutch.  From his famous failure and upchucking in the 4th quarter of Super Bowl XXIX, to his complete inability to finish a game out this season, the guy simply cannot be relied upon to seal a victory, or complete a comeback.

Brett Favre:  Interceptions.  I know, I know, he’s phenomenal.  His consecutive starts at quarterback dwarf Cal Ripken, Jr.’s “Iron Man” accomplishments by comparison.  He’s the all-time NFL leader in passing yards and touchdowns, but also in interceptions.  He could certainly lead a comeback with his talent, but does anyone truly trust him not to throw a heart-wrenching pick in a crucial third-and-long situation in a big game?  I certainly don’t.

Tony Romo:  I know his numbers are great, because unlike Drew Bledsoe, he decided to start throwing to Terrell Owens all the time, but I haven’t heard a good argument for the case that Romo is even a top-3 quarterback in the league.  Top-3 fantasy quarterback?  Oh, sure.  No one will argue that having Jason Witten, Terrell Owens, Roy Williams and two great running backs to take pressure off of you would make you a phenomenal fantasy quarterback.  But until the guy wins a playoff game, I’m not counting him among the elite just yet.

Eli Manning:  I admit, he is well on his way to becoming one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, but he needs more than one incredible playoff run to get there.  I’m not ready to put him there after one Super Bowl, just like Brady wasn’t considered that great until his third.  That leaves two.

Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are easily candidates to round out the top 3 with Brady, and fans of both could argue their merits as #1 all day.  Here’s a look at their stats over the last three years:

Brady:  12,445 yards, 100 TD, 34 Int, 99 QB Rating

Brees:  12,417 yards, 78 TD, 44 Int, 93.9 QB Rating

Manning:  12, 184 yards, 90 TD, 33 Int, 94.6 QB Rating

I have no idea if those QB Ratings make any sense, because averaging out the QB Ratings from ‘05, ‘06 and ‘07 probably don’t equal out exactly, but it’s close enough.  Both Brees and Manning are back at the top of the fantasy QB ranks again, with some outliers up there as usual (Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers, none of which I’m ready to put into this class of quarterback).

So, if we’re looking for a quarterback to be the best player in football.  I’d say it’s one of these two guys.  Tune in next time when running backs are discussed.  Before long, we’ll find out who the best of the rest actually is.

So I’ve now seen parts of 3 Trailblazers games.  I’m not a huge basketball fan, but I understand the game and feel like I’m capable of writing an article about a team I will barely watch.  Here are my notable potables from the first week of the season:

1.  Greg Oden.  He went down with an ankle injury in the first quarter of opening night against the Lakers.  I could hear a collective groan throughout the northwest.  Apparently it’s only a foot sprain and shouldn’t keep him out of the lineup long, but it’s clear he’s not a durable player.  I’ve never seen him play healthy, even in college, and am going to call him a bust until further notice.

2.  Brandon Roy.  This guy will make or break the Blazers this year.  In game 1 against the Lakeshow, he must have had double vision because he was nowhere near the rim.  Against the Spurs, Roy controlled the game contributing 26 points and 7 assists (a phenomenal win by the way - SA shot 57% from the floor and still got beat).

3.  LaMarcus Aldridge.  This guy has a pretty jump shot for a big man.  Amare Stoudamire struggled to cover him in the Suns matchup, refusing to give Aldridge respect from the 15′ to 18′ range. 

4.  Joel Przybilla.  This guy is a good quick rebounder and a gutsy defensive player and from what I understand, earned his stripes last year in that role.  He’ll be a major contributer this year.

5.  Rudy Fernandez.  I don’t know anything about this guy.  He’s a rookie who put up 20 points against the Suns, so I’ll keep an eye out for him.

Bottom Line.  Without Greg Oden playing up to expectations (or playing at all), this team is going to be average.  They’ll make the playoffs, but there’s no title run without a big man.  Hopefully he pulls his act together and guts it out, because otherwise I’m not going to be excited about writing this article, and I want to be excited.

What’s a baseball? 

There are no sports in Oregon.

As an ex-patriot of New England (when it comes to sports, New England is its own country, so the term ex-patriot is accurately used here), I’ve found the folk here don’t quite have the passion of the Boston sports fans. 

Faux Fans Everywhere… 

When walking around here though, I do find people supporting teams from all over the country.  I’ve seen a man with  a Yankees tattoo who has never been to New York.  As a part-timer at Banana Republic, my girlfriend Sarah calls out everyone with a Sox hat.  She shines the interrigation light in their eyes to find out if they’re true fans, or just paying lip service for their long lost uncle who once spent a weekend in Boston.

There must be something though… right?

So the topics of choice out here are PAC-10 football, the Portland TrailBlazers, and the San Diego Padres AAA affiliate, the Portland Beavers.  A valid point to make about the Beavers as a sports logo is that the leading cause of death for a Beaver is to be crushed by a tree it just chomped through.  I recently saw the Oregon State Beavers throw 4 interceptions to a measly Washington State team, that rumor has it, held open tryouts for their QB position this year.  The “Beavs,” as the alum call them, pulled it together in the second half and trounced the Cougars, ruining my perfect analogy.

As a result, the best I can do here is keep a running tab of the failures of Seattle sports teams such as the Seahawks, Mariners, and SuperSonics.  Well, maybe just the Seahawks and Mariners.  For the sake of humanity, I’m not going to do that.

What I will do, to pay homage to my old college profession, is follow the Portland Blazers.  I am looking forward to the annual Nuggets v. Blazers 420 Special on December 23rd.  I don’t know anything about the Blazers except that some fella named Greg Oden will play this year.  That’s enough to get the folks out here into a frenzy, and I think I’ll join them.  So you, me, and the bottle will make three learning all about Portland basketball and the NBA Western Conference.

Go Blazers!

Since there is a Thursday game this week, I’ll throw up my picks today, then probably write another column about the games on Sunday night. I missed out on the pool I run at work this week by a measly 5 picks. The worst part(s)? I lost to a woman, I lost by a lot, and I paid for TWO slips, so I had twice the odds!

I hope no one is taking these seriously…

On with the picks…

Denver (+3) at Cleveland

Brady Quinn will get his first start in front of his ultra-supportive home crowd tonight.  The Browns have gotten their offense going just well enough to add his charisma and talent to cover this spread.  Although the Broncos possess huge amounts of talent at left tackle, quarterback, cornerback and wide receiver, they seem fatally flawed in key areas (such as passing defense - 27th in the league).  Browns cover, and cover big.  Wait… That makes no sense.  Don’t listen to me, I’m certainly not.
Pick: Broncos

New Orleans (Pk) at Atlanta

There seem to be a ton of home teams this week that have very achievable spreads to cover.  Since none of my other tactics seem to work, no matter how much strategy or nonsense I put into my choosing them, I’m going to go ahead and choose mostly home teams this week.  If I lose, I’m blaming Katherine Harris.
Pick: Falcons

Carolina (-9) at Oakland

Over the past week, Oakland waived self-proclaimed “Greatest player in the history of organized sport” DeAngelo Hall because, statistically, he is the worst cornerback since I played for the Barnstable Silver Bullets at 11 years old.  With their great corner on the other side (for real, this guy really is great), Asiomughosomingham Oulotusofeld, Steve Smith will be all but neutralized.  However, whether or not Oakland has enough to stop the other threats on Carolina’s offense (Jeff King, Mushin Muhammad,
Pick:  Raiders

Tennessee (Pk) at Chicago

Tennssee has everything going against them in this game.  A Chicago defense that has found its “We’re going to knock your teeth out” mentality again, a rising media interest in their undefeated record, an opponent whose strength would theoretically neutralize their strength (Chicago’s run D against the Titans’ running game), and playing in a hostile, cold and windy Chicago home stadium.  I do love this Titans team (especially what Chris Johnson has done for my fantasy teams), but their first loss will come in week 10.

Pick:  Bears

Baltimore (+1 1/2) at Houston

In my fantasy auction league (recently renamed “Hurricane Katrina” after injuries to Tom Brady, Reggie Bush, Matt Hasselbeck [we have Bobby Engram], Rashard Mendenhall and Kolby Smith), Steve Slaton is now our only viable running back, and after struggling against a frustratingly formidable Minnesota rush defense last week, must try to find some sort of success against an equally tough Baltimore run D.  We plan to catch breaks in this league at some point, we really do.  I see them coming at around week 12.  I need anti-psychotic medication immediately.
Pick:  Houston

Jacksonville (-6 1/2) at Detroit

Despite Detroit’s valiant cover last week, I still refuse to pick them against a decent team, even though they’re home.  I mean, they lost Roy Williams!  They don’t have a running back!  This has got to be a blowout, right?  By the way, did MJD slip into a coma at some point this season?  I’ve heard less about Maurice Jones Drew since fantasy drafts ended than I have about Reverend Jeremiah Wright.  And, that just makes me sad.
Pick:  Jaguars

Seattle (+9) at Miami

My useless, ridiculous, based-on-nothing prediction for the week:  Seneca Wallace will finally be introduced to Bobby Engram, who caught over 90 passes for over 1,000 yards last season, and will be able to maintain some sort of offensive drive against Miami.  Then, they’ll lose by 8.  Yes, that sounds good.
Pick:  Seahawks

Green Bay (+2) at Minnesota

After losing a heartbreaker against Tennessee last week, something gives me the feeling this talented young team will be angry and aggressive against a Minnesota defense still vulnerable against the pass.  If Green Bay can minimize Adrian Peterson’s impact on this game, they may even have this wrapped up by halftime.  Sportsomedy Player Prediction:  Greg Jennings:  6 catches, 138 yards, 2 TDs.
Pick:  Packers

Buffalo (+4) at New England

Anyone willing to bet against a Bill Belichick coached, fresh-off-a-loss, angry New England team playing a must-win division game at home against Buffalo this week?  Yeah, me either.
Pick:  Patriots

St. Louis (+8) at New York Jets

Steven Jackson will be inactive for the game on Sunday.  So will the Rams’ chances of competing int his game.
Pick:  Jets

New York Giants (+3) at Philadelphia

Besides watching the Patriots, this may be the game I’m most interested in come Sunday.  The Giants, after suffering serious injuries and losses to their defense before the season even started, have been playing over their heads for the majority of the season.  And, although the Eagles’ defense has allowed more than a few points, they are very capable of destroying a team’s morale with sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles and top-notch trash talk.  I see the
Pick:  Eagles

Indianapolis (Pk) at Pittsburgh

Something about Indianapolis playing outside at Hines Field in cold weather against a rejuvenated Steelers team which just got one of its best players back in Willie Parker, makes me think this game will be a lopsided victory for the home team.  Dr. Foreman will catch Bob Sanders cheating up after the first quarter, then starting bombing passes to Santonio Holmes for 140-yard touchdown passes.  In addition, this Colts team this year has just been awkward to watch.  Besides the football-beauty that is Peyton-to-Wayne, this team has little going for it this season.
Pick:  Steelers

Kansas City (+15) at San Diego

Kansas City has a 13th string running back, a former peanut at quarterback, and a star receiver who drops almost as many passes as Terrell Owens, but do they really lose by more than two touchdowns to a Norv Turner team?
Pick:  Chiefs

San Francisco (+9 1/2) at Arizona

I think I’ve gone with enough home teams with huge spreads at this time.  With Tim Hightower running like he just escaped from police custody and recently getting all-world wide receiver back, the Cardinals should win this game handily.  But holding J.T. O’Sullivan and Frank Gore to 10 points less?  The best defensive player in the game, Patrick Willis (P-Will!) will not let that happen…
Pick:  49ers

Yeah, I know it’s condensed, and yeah, I know it’s even late.  But look, when you’re hanging from Halloween and you’ve spent 3 out of 5 nights during the week going out looking for costume stuffs, you’d be pretty wiped out too.  So there!  And now… The Picks…

BUFFALO (-5 1/2) over New York Jets

CHICAGO (-12 1/2) over Detroit

CINCINNATI (+7 1/2) over Jacksonville

Baltimore (+1 1/2) over CLEVELAND

TENNESSEE (-5 1/2) over Green Bay

Tampa Bay (-8 1/2) over KANSAS CITY

ST. LOUIS (+3) over Arizona

Houston (+4 1/2) over MINNESOTA

Miami (+3 1/2) over DENVER

Atlanta (-3) over OAKLAND

NEW YORK GIANTS (-9) over Dallas

Philadelphia (-6 1/2) over SEATTLE

New England (+6) over Indianapolis

WASHINGTON (-2) over Pittsburgh

Last Week:

Me: 6-6

LVK: 6-6

Season:

Me: 53-58
LVK: 58-51