Mid-Season Fantasy Review
I simply don’t know what to make of the NFL anymore. I don’t care who you are, what your level of expertise is or how long you’ve been doing what you’re doing, there’s no way you’re hovered anywhere near 70% on correctly picking winners this year. It’s just impossible.
Vegas has recouped all their money and then some from the Patriots’ remarkable run last season, and one has to think they’re in on this. How can all these games end up so far off the general perceptions of them? The NFL has truly succeeded in having more parity than any other professional sport.
But that’s not what we’re here to talk about. We’re here to discuss how fantastic I’ve been in predicting everything that’s happened this season in the fantasy universe. And, now that we’re finished with that, we can get on to everything I missed:
Here’s what I got wrong:
1. Santana Moss, WR - Washington Redskins… Sort of…
He’s responded to me stating his washed-upedness with a terrific half-season so far, averaging over five catches a game and over 82 yards. But despite his yardage (658, 5th in NFL) and touchdowns (5, T-2nd), he submitted two awful performances in two consecutive weeks that almost made my points about him totally valid. In week 5 he didn’t register a catch, then came out in week 6 with a two catch, 22 yard performance. After this I thought my prediction had materialized exactly, but he recovered very well from this dip. However, with his hamstring ailing him as week 9 approaches, we’ll soon see what he has left for this season.
2. Michael Turner, RB - Atlanta Falcons… Sort of…
This is another guy who started of great, but has come very hard back down to earth. At the the semi-halfway point, he is still one of the highest rated fantasy football players in the game, with 655 rushing yards and five touchdowns. However, his receiving stats (3 catches for 11 yards) make him all but a liability in Point Per Reception (PPR) leagues. His stats are also slanted by the fact he broke out with an outrageous 220 yards in week 1. However, after we learned how absolutely pitiful the Detroit Lions would be this year, this achievement was diminished somewhat. There is also something to be said for the improvement of this team as a whole. With a reliable, talented quarterback leading the team and a group of hardworking players on the defensive and offensive side of the ball playing to the best of their abilities, running games can sometimes be good by association. Since his week 1 performance, Michael Turner has averaged only 73 yards per game with four scores in six games. He is averaging 4.5 yards per carry for the season, but since the first game, he’s averaging an entire yard less, only 3.5 ypc for the other 6 games. Not exactly ideal for a #1 fantasy back.
If you haven’t noticed, my ridiculous ego is preventing me from admitting total misses so far. We’ll see later if I can find something more complete that I missed.3. Benjamin Watson, TE - New England Patriots
Speaking of total misses… I suggested that after the first 7 or so tight ends were taken, Tony Scheffler of Denver and Benjamin Watson from New England would be premier bargains and put up numbers comparable to the best tight ends in the league. Swing, and a miss. Not just a miss, a Jason Varitek, swinging at a change-up down and away from a great right-handed pitcher type of miss. After seven games, Big Benjamin has seven catches for 70 yards, or 1 catch for 10 yards per game. Yeah I’m going to go ahead and admit I missed that one. I will make the small point that tight-end loving Tom Brady has been injured all season, but nothing excuses that type of output. My apologies.
4. Who I told you to pass on…
In my reach for/pass on columns, I suggested that it was worth waiting and/or passing on Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson. Both guys are in the 30 catch/300 yard area, Smith having 4 touchdowns and Johnson 5. A healthy Jake Delhomme has contributed to Steve Smith’s consistency, and Calvin Johnson emerged much more quickly than most people including myself imagined. Now with Roy Williams in Dallas, he’s forced more into the spotlight than ever before. He’ll certainly see tougher coverage, but the guy’s so talented I’m not sure it will make one bit of difference. Whoops…
And now everyone’s favorite part… What I Got Right…
1. Kickers
Okay, okay. I know everyone who knows anything about fantasy football knows to avoid kickers until the second-to-last or last round, but this year’s crop of kickers is so unbelievably lop-sided I feel like it needs to be mentioned here. Let’s take a look at the top kickers in my commissioned leagues (3 points for most field goals, increasing with distance, and negative points for missed chip-shots and extra points):
1. Joe Nedney, SF
2. John Kasay, Car
3. Rian Lindell, Buf
4. Shaun Suisham, Was
5. John Carney, NYG
Alright, not a bad list. In fact, after the first couple of weeks, most of these kickers were owned in most Yahoo! leagues (the fantasy page I most often use). However, in their pre-rankings, and the kickers most often drafted early and often, these are the kickers, in their pre-ranked order.
1. Nick Folk, Dal
2. Shayne Graham, Cin
3. Adam Vinatieri, Ind
4. Nate Kaeding, SD
5. Stephen Gostkowski, NE
Not a match in the top 5? Okay, it happens. Let’s continue…
6. Josh Scobee, Jax
7. Rod Bironas, Ten
8. Phil Dawson, Cle
9. Neil Rackers, Ari
10. David Akers, Phi
Not a match in the top 10? Now that’s getting a tiny bit out of hand, but, I suppose it still happens. Moving on…
11. Mason Crosby, GB
12. Jeff Reed, Pit
13. Josh Brown, StL
14. Ryan Longwell, Min
15. Robbie Gould, Chi
16. Kris Brown, Hou
(No… I’m not kidding…)
17. Mike Nugent, NYG
And finally…
18. Shaun Suisham, Was
17 (SEVENTEEN!) kickers were pre-ranked higher than any of the top five highest-scoring kickers in the NFL so far. Not only that, but Suisham’s still only the fourth highest actual ranking kicker this season. Here’s where the rest of the guys fell in the preranks:
26. Joe Nedney, SF (Ranked #1)
23. John Kasay, Car (Ranked #2)
21. Rian Lindell, Buf (Ranked #3)
24. John Carney, NYG (Ranked #5)
The icing on the cake? Adam Vinatieri (Pre-Ranked #3 in kickers) is currently ranked #30 out of 30. That’s right. Dead… Last… You can’t make this stuff up.
2. My Draft Diary
Despite wasting 2 high picks on Tom Brady and Carson Palmer, I was able to get (In a PPR league!) Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Greg Jennings, Lee Evans, Chris Johnson (in the fourth-to-last round), picked up Chad Pennington and Matt Ryan as free agent backups at quarterback and am currently in 1st place in that league. In addition, my choice to pick up P-Will, Antonio Cromartie, DeMeco Ryans and an assortment of the best defensive players in the game has provided me with a squad of IDPs that can outscore anyone’s offense on any given week. I should give lectures on IDP, PPR leagues I swear to god.
3. Pass On: Willie Parker, Marvin Harrison, Tony Romo, Adrian Peterson
A few things: I realize Parker and Romo were only bad decisions so far because of injuries, but I don’t care, I’m taking credit for them. Marvin Harrison was a truly bad player to reach for this season. Finally, remember that I didn’t say pass on Adrian Peterson, I simply said to pick LDT first. I made a point of stating his higher potential value in PPR leagues, and his lack of competition with Michael Turner now gone. Adrian does not catch passes like LDT, has one serious knee injury in one year of playing, and has Chester Taylor to compete with still. You’re doing well if you got Peterson, you’re doing better if you got LDT.
4. Reggie Bush
First, I need to vent. My two highest paid players on my auction league team were Tom Brady and Reggie Bush. Both injured, and both would have had us in the top three in that league right now, without a doubt. Reggie Bush again (since this is a PPR league) was one of the top-scoring running backs, and our low-money picks such as DeSean Jackson, Derrick Mason and Chris Perry (we got decent performance out of him before benching him when he became ineffective and lost his job. We also only need to start one running back weekly) gave us plenty of points per week to contend seriously. Now, with the injury to Bush, I’m calling Shenanigans for everything and vetoing every trade for no reason because I’m just so angry at fantasy sports. It’s really sad to see, and I hate myself for it. But, what would you do?
Before I take off, here is the mid-season summary for you. The top five players at each position, and their stats in my PPR, IDP league (Overall Fantasy Ranking in Parentheses):
Running Backs:
(3) Reggie Bush - 294 yards rushing, 2 TDs. 42 catches, 366 yards, 3 TDs. 285 return yards, 3 TDs.
(4) Marion Barber - 611 yards rushing, 5 TDs. 32 catches, 276 yards, 2 TDs.
(6) Frank Gore - 629 yards rushing, 4 TDs. 32 catches, 311 yards, 1 TD. 1 2-point conversion.
(10) Clinton Portis - 944 yards rushing, 7 TDs. 11 catches, 77 yards.
(15) Matt Forte - 515 yards rushing, 4 TDs. 29 catches, 223 yards, 2 TDs.
Quarterbacks:
(1) Drew Brees - 2,563 yards, 15 TDs, 7 Ints.
(2) Philip Rivers - 2,038 yards, 19 TDs, 6 Ints, 2 2-point conversions.
(5) Aaron Rodgers - 1,668 yards, 12 TDs, 4 Ints. 113 yards rushing, 3 TDs.
(7) Kurt Warner - 2,089 yards, 14 TDs, 6 Ints.
(9) Jay Cutler - 1,862 yards, 13 TDs, 7 Ints. 84 yards rushing.
Wide Receivers:
(8) Santana Moss - 42 catches, 658 yards, 5 TDs. 114 return yards, 1 TD.
(11) Andre Johnson - 56 catches, 772 yards, 2 TDs.
(12) Roddy White - 43 catches, 679 yards, 5 TDs.
(13) Larry Fitzgerald - 43 catches, 661 yards, 5 TDs.
(18) Greg Jennings - 37 catches, 685 yards, 4 TDs.
Tight Ends:
Jason Witten - 46 catches, 549 yards, 2 TDs.
Antonio Gates - 30 catches, 403 yards, 5 TDs.
Chris Cooley - 40 catches, 451 yards, 1 TD.
Tony Gonzalez - 33 catches, 369 yards, 3 TDs.
Owen Daniels - 32 catches, 395 yards, 2 TDs.
Defensive Teams:
Chicago - 114 PA, 14 sacks, 1 safety, 10 Ints, 6 fumble recoveries, 5 TDs, 2 blocked kicks.
Tampa Bay - 114 PA, 14 sacks, 12 Ints, 3 fumble recoveries, 4 TDs, 1 blocked kick.
Philadelphia - 131 PA, 23 sacks, 1 safety, 8 Ints, 7 fumble recoveries, 2 TDs, 1 return TD.
Tennessee - 87 PA, 18 sacks, 12 Ints, 4 fumble recoveries, 2 TDs, 1 blocked kick.
Green Bay - 151 PA, 12 sacks, 13 Ints, 1 fumble recovery, 5 TDs, 1 blocked kick, 1 return TD.
Don’t forget to email all fantasy questions and/or comments to bobby@sportsomedy.com
