We are in the midst of the all-star break in baseball, and that can mean only one thing: The Pre-Preseason NFL Preview! In Part I, we will break down the divisions in the AFC team by team, how they’ve improved, how they’ve gotten worse, and where they’ll finish in the end. And a warning to New York fans: I’m still angry… so don’t expect objectivity. Now, on with the preview. Last year’s finish in parentheses, projected finish listed afterward in bold.
AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots (16-0)
13-3
While some key defensive players are aging another year, this team still has Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Laurence Maroney, Benjamin Watson, a Pro-Bowl studded offensive line and some guy named Tom Brady who threw 50 touchdown passes in last year’s regular season. As with most teams, the success of the Patriots will hinge almost exclusively on player health. As in, if these players stay healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised for the 2008 Patriots to be the second team to go 16-0 during the regular season. Using their early draft picks to select young talent at their two main areas of need (linebacker and cornerback), the Pats have added depth where they absolutely needed it. Jerod Mayo was a fantastic pick for the Patriots who will fit in perfectly in the middle with Tedy Bruschi. With Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas deperately wanting to be at their natural outside positions, having someone as athletic and smart to fly around the middle of the field as Mayo will improve the team’s defense dramatically right off the bat. With Vrabel, Thomas, Jarvis Green, Ty Warren and Richard Seymour rushing on almost every play, the Kraft family (principal owners of the Patriots) may want to invest in a few extra stretchers this year to cart off all the opposing quarterbacks that are sure to fall victim to this daunting pass rush.
Even after choosing to make the most important game of the year their only loss last season the Patriots again look unstoppable. The only things that will be able to hinder them this year will be injuries and Bill Belichick wearing red hooded sweatshirts. Or, refusing to challenge obvious fumble recoveries. Or, refusing to resort to more screen passes under heavy pass rushes which made them so successful the past six years. I just gave myself a migraine.
2. New York Jets (4-12) 10-6
Out of all the teams engaged in trade talks and signings this off-season, the Jets may have done the most of anyone to improve their chances for 2008. Some of these signings include ex-Patriot and Lion offensive tackle Damien Woody, seven-time pro-bowl guard Alan Faneca, defensive end/outside linebacker Calvin Pace, and running back/kick returner Jesse Chatman. In addition, the Jets drafted the absolute rock star in this year’s draft in Vernon Gholston. Every year there are one or two players that rocket up a half a dozen draft spots because of a great workout turned in at the combine, and Gholston is a prime example. After bench pressing more than many offensive linemen, and turning in great vertical leap and 40-yard dash time, Gholston jumped up from a borderline top-10 pick to having his name floated around for number one overall. He ended up falling to number six, where the Jets were happy to scoop him up.
However, even with all these improvements, they’re still the team that lost 12 games last season. If Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery and Thomas Jones can gel together and stay healthy, the team will be a tough matchup for most squads, but the Jets face a more serious question: The third year success/failure deadline.
There is a prevailing theory in the world of NFL analysts that the third year is the year a draft pick must start contributing, or start packing. The draft class this season on the chopping block is 2006, and the Jets have three crucial members on their starting squad: D’Brickashaw (Thanks, Mom) Ferguson, Nick Mangold, and Kellen Clemens. So far in their short careers, Ferguson and Mangold have been about as consistent as Kevin Costner’s career, with Clemens simply not having enough playing time due to Jets’ management insisting on starting a quarterback with the throwing arm of Johnny Damon. This season, we will be able to see whether the Jets are headed for a true shot at being great, or years of futility and frustration.
3. Buffalo Bills (7-9) 9-7
These Bills were one of the big surprises of the 2007-2008 season. Rookie Marshawn Lynch proved he has the stuff to be a top-flight back in the NFL, and Trent Edwards took the starting job away from J.P. Losman by sheer force. The Bills should get off to a better start without having a quarterback controversy to deal with, but some aging stars need to stay healthy. Marcus Stroud and Schobel will be a force together on the defensive line, and Terrence McGee is always dangerous in the defensive backfield as well as in the return game. However, should any of these players go down for any period of time (Like McGee last year), the Bills lack depth to back them up. And that, my friends, is an understatement.
The Bills did, however, select my favorite name in the 2008 draft: Leodis McKelvin. This name was a whole lot better when I first heard it, and thought it was “Leonidis,” which led to weeks of me wishing for the Patriots to draft “King Leonidis” as well as me re-watching “300″ about 12 times on HBO. After learning the real pronunciation, I chose to keep calling him Leonidis anyway… and can you blame me? This highly skilled D-back should be a great compliment to McGee and help soften the blow of losing Nate Clements before last season. Also, he’ll be great to have around should Persia try to invade at any time. Fine! I’ll cut it out…
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4. Miami dolphins (1-15) 6-10
Good news, Dolphins fans, your team is going to win five more games than it did last year! Unfortunately, that still puts them four games below .500. With the energy new management (not to mention the fear of under-performing for a Parcells-run team), first overall pick Jake Long at left tackle, and a healthy Ronnie Brown will bring, the team will be a lot more resistant to getting run over this season, but they’ll still be run over. Look for Jason Taylor to be traded in the beginning of the season, with the Dolphins collecting another first round pick to build up a super-talented young team for the upcoming decade. As it stands right now, Jason Taylor reminds me of Al Pacino in “Two for the Money.” At some point he may just look around at his co-stars (tell me Ricky Williams and Matthew McConaughey aren’t a great comparison, I dare you), and say: “What? What the hell am I doing here? Where is my agent so I can fire him?!”
After they trade off the rest of their veterans, they should have a great core of players for Bill Parcells to build upon. Also, there’s a relatively good chance they will inexplicably beat Tom Brady and the Patriots for absolutely no reason in an important game in December. So, they have that going for them too.
AFC NORTH
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) 11-5
Pittsburgh suffered from some pretty substantial injuries last season, most notably to Troy Polamalu, the owner of the largest Samoan afro in human history. Pittsburgh is famous for putting an above-average defensive and running squad on the field, and coach Mike Tomlin takes pride in continuing that tradition. With the emergence of Santonio Holmes as a deep threat, Hines Ward doing his usual damage and bruising rookie running back Rashard Mendenhall making sure the Steelers can actually run into the end zone this year (”Fast” Willie Parker crossed the goal line only twice last season, despite racking up over 1,300 yards), the Steel City could have a very formidable offensive group. The loss of Alan Faneca will hurt them in the running game and in pass protection, but Ben Roethlisberger can avoid pass rushers as well as almost anyone in the league, despite the fact it looks like the Milwaukee Brewers sausage race when a big defender is racing after the 6′5″, 240lb. quarterback.
2. Cleveland Browns (10-6) 9-7
Although the Cleveland Browns compiled 10 wins last season with one of the most explosive offenses in the game, I simply can’t see them repeating that performance. Their defense was alarmingly sub-par all season, but they always seemed to just outscore their opponents. They even hung in offensively against the historically great New England offense, which almost no other team could say last year. With the addition of Donte Stallworth to a receiving corps that already includes Kellen Winslow Jr. (82 catches, 1106 yards, 5 scores, and a two-point conversion to boot), and Braylon Edwards (80 catches, 1289 yards, and 16 touchdowns), who caught more touchdown passes than anyone in the league not named Randy Moss, they’ll be just as incredibly dangerous (if not more so) through the air. The trade for Shaun Rogers will help their defense control the run a little better, but without any 1-3rd round picks this year to improve their defensive depth, they won’t have what it takes to make it over the hump.
That said, don’t ever, ever bet against this team when a spread is involved. Until the playoffs begin and defense really starts to take over games, this team really does have the ability to outscore any opponent. If physical appearance were offense, and brains were defense, the browns would be Jessica Simpson. An absolute joy to watch, but not one you want to trust your money with.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9) 7-9
The Cincinnati Bengals, in an attempt to correct what has going so badly wrong with their team for the past few years, made one of the smartest draft choices in April. They chose Keith Rivers to be the centerpiece of their defense, hopefully for the next 7 or 8 years. Rivers is a great character guy, a smart ballplayer and extremely talented. The former USC star will provide leadership and solid defense at middle linebacker to a team which had so much legal trouble in the past few years you would think Burt Reynolds would be playing quarterback and their pre-season games would be played against prison guards.
The unfortunate thing about the Bengals is they have so many quality players that they are an absolute joy to watch. Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are arguably two of the top six or seven receivers in the league, and they are catching passes from arguably the third-best quarterback in the NFL. Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson combine bruising, power running with quick, darting dashing to rack up a ton of yardage each year. If they can only turn this offensive talent and new defensive potential into some victories, they could be even more fun to watch. Also, it’s also always fun to take wagers on who will be the first player on the team to get in legal trouble. Now that Chris Henry and Odell Thurman are off the team, it makes the question that much harder. If Chad Johnson, one of the nicest guys in the league despite his humorous but sometimes annoying showmanship, shows up to camp and falls in line, this will be a decent team again, but not a serious threat to anyone.
4. Baltimore Ravens (5-11) 4-12
This team is the most baffling team, by far, in the NFL today. The only reasons I see that Kyle Boller is starting over Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith is that he is three inches taller, and he can throw the ball through the goalposts from the 50 yard line on his knees. The man with the 71.9 lifetime QB rating will start the season under center for Baltimore, at least until they lose their first 6 games to open the season. Their defense is experienced, to say it nicely, and very tough to beat. However, the defense can’t score points on a nightly basis, and certainly not enough for an offense that’s completely incapable of scoring in any manner.
So why not give Troy Smith a shot? This prevailing thought that he’s too small to play football doesn’t hold any water with me. Until he holds some sort of record for being the smallest quarterback ever to start a game, he’s not “too small.” Let him stand behind that bruising offensive line, use his quickness to get outside the pocket and actually make some plays happen. That’s what he’s good at, and that’s what he could bring to the Ravens table. At the very least, wouldn’t this be more fun to watch than Kyle Boller finding new ways to turn the ball over every single sunday afternoon? If there is one NFL team I’m glad I’m not a fan of, it would be the Baltimore Ravens. No offense.
AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts (13-3) 12-4
The Colts once again are scary-good and poised to take their sixth straight division title. Their defensive backfield is a young and talented group of ballhawks. Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Dallas Clark are the most explosive offense outside of New England. The run defense, after being historically bad in 2006, shored up in the playoffs that year, resulting in a championship. They continued that pattern with their new-look defensive line throughout last year, fielding one of the better defenses in the league. The only questions for this team seem to be a perennially overrated offensive line, a small and questionable linebacking corps, and health and legal concerns with Marvin Harrison. Harrison suffered a severe knee injury last season that drove his fantasy owners to the brink of murder/suicide after the team listed him as probable for most of the season. At his age, knee injuries aren’t the type of thing that guys can bounce back from and have the exact same ability to run and cut the way he is used to. In addition, an investigation is still ongoing in which a gun owned by Marvin Harrison was used in the killing of a man after an incident at a night club. These types of issues don’t go away easily. They will likely go away much easier than the Spygate stories, however.
This seems as good a time as any to explain how in the past two NFL seasons, my worst nightmares have been realized. In back-to-back seasons, the Manning-led Colts and Giants have ended the Patriots’ Super Bowl dreams. One in a historic AFC Championship comeback, the other in a come-from-behind victory in a Super Bowl that the Patriots (18-0 at the time) never, ever should have lost. Thank God for the Red Sox and Celtics, or I’d still be curled in the fetal position in the 2′ x 2′ area between my bed and the wall, muttering to myself about red hooded sweatshirts and terrible coverage calls in goal line situations. The only way my football life gets worse from this point is if I come home from work in the middle of the day to find my girlfriend of 6 1/2 years facing naked double-coverage from Eli and Peyton Manning in the bedroom. Have you ever thrown up in your mouth while having a stroke? Because I just did.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) 12-4
This seems as good a time as any to mention that Maurice Jones-Drew may just be my favorite non-Patriot player in the league. He’s a deeply tanned, dreadlocked Verne Troyer who can level linebackers twice his size and has one of the most humiliating post-touchdown dances ever. On the unintentional comedy scale, that ranks an absurd 12 out of 10.
The loss of Marcus Stroud will hurt, but the Jaguars tried to compensate by drafting two defensive ends in the first two rounds, including stud junior Derrick Harvey out of UF. The running game will be dominant yet again, and David Garrard has evolved into a very effective, efficient quarterback. Rashean Mathis will have his usual underrated year, and Troy Williamson should provide them with a potential big-play receiver they’ve lacked for the past few years. Getting Mike Peterson back should ease some of the pressure created by Stroud’s departure, so things are looking pretty good for the residents of Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
3. Houston Texans (8-8) 11-5
The Texans have had a few very good draft picks in a row, with Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans coming out of the ‘06 draft, and Amobi Okoye looking very promising, despite being the youngest player ever drafted out of college at only 19 years old. With a healthy Andre Johnson continuing his rise to the absolute top tier of wide receivers in the game, Schaub & Co. should be able to make plenty of noise in the toughest division in the game.
The Achilles heel of this team is its running game. Darius Walker and Ron Dayne do not a running game make. Ron Dayne is now 30 years old and weighs approximately 358 lbs. Ahman Green is 31 and likely couldn’t run a 40 before mini-camp begins. Chris Brown, Darius Walker, and rookie Steve Slaton will probably battle through the pre-season for a chance to platoon with another sub-par back in this awful situation. If anyone on this team rushes for more than 1,000 yards it will not only be amazing, they may be my pick to get to the AFC championship.
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4. Tennessee Titans (4-12) 5-11
If the 2006 NFL draft were to be done over tomorrow, where would Vince Young go? This question has been asked numerous times, but mostly in the context of “Who would go 1, 2 or 3?” between Reggie Bush, Mario Williams and him. However, now that this draft class has matured for a couple of years, there are many more players that should be involved in the discussion. After choosing Mario Williams first overall, surprising many experts and fans by passing on Bush, Williams responded with a great season last year, and is looking more promising with every game. Then, in round two, Houston also selected DeMeco Ryans, an absolute beast at linebacker who would not slip past the top five if the draft were redone.
So who would go before Vince Young if all the NFL teams had a mulligan? Let’s take a look at just some of the names that went after Vince Young at #3: A.J. Hawk, Vernon Davis, Ernie Sims, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Antonio Cromartie, Laurence Maroney, Santonio Holmes, Joseph Addai, Ryans, Rocky McIntosh, Marcus McNeill, Greg Jennings, Devin Hester, Maurice Jones-Drew, and last but not least, Marques “Three Picks From Last” Colston. At this point, is Vince Young out-performing anyone on that list? This doesn’t even include the names of some offensive linemen who are probably submitting high quality performances of their own. Would Young even be a first-rounder? The guy threw almost twice as many interceptions as touchdowns last season, and led a team with a high-powered defense to four total victories.
Vince Young, for his career, has a quarterback rating of 69.0. He has thrown 21 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. If he doesn’t make a giant step in his progress this season, it may be time to start developing a plan B, while most of the team is still young.
AFC WEST
1. San Diego Chargers (11-5) 11-5
Ah, the model of NFL inconsistency. After beginning last season 5-5 including blowouts at the hands of the Patriots, Chiefs and Broncos, they finished on a 6-0 run, and a tremendous amount of momentum heading into the playoffs. So, what do they do to celebrate? With seemingly every offensive player injured, they lost to the 17-0 Patriots. So far, the Norv Turner era has produced two playoff victories, two more than Marty Schottenheimer brought them in four seasons. However, that still doesn’t make it appropriate to hire Norv Turner for any position, ever.
This season will again be wildly unpredictable, with Philip Rivers trying to find his way, Ladainian Tomlinson rushing for 170,000 yards and 80 scores, Shawne Merriman continuing the worst post-sack dance tradition in the history of post-sack dances, and Norv Turner glancing across the sideline all season looking like someone just stole his lunch money. Actually, I suppose it is pretty predictable. You’ve gotta love this team. Or hate them. You know what? Forget I said anything about them.
2. Denver Broncos (7-9) 8-8
Even as I write this, I think I’m overrating the Denver Broncos. They have enormous home-field advantage and a perennially superb running game (Sometimes despite not having anyone to run the ball). Jay Cutler is a truly talented quarterback, and Brandon Marshall will be a top-10 wide receiver sooner rather than later. Can I find another reason to put them at .500? I don’t think so. The Broncos did make a great move by scooping up Ryan Clady in this year’s draft; an offensive lineman whose name was floated around as possibly going as high as #3.
3. Oakland Raiders (4-12) 8-8
After the Jets, the Oakland Raiders likely did the most to improve their team following the 2007-2008 season. The additions of Javon Walker (Assuming he fully recovers from his Las Vegas mugging), DeAngelo Hall, Gibril Wilson and draft pick Darren McFadden is sure to improve this team’s current dismal standing. If head coach Lane Kiffin can fight the urge to start Andrew Walter or Marques Tuisasos… so.. poso… the other quarterback, the Raiders could benefit from improved offensive chemistry. Having JaMarcus Russell, Ronald Curry, Javon Walker, Drew Carter, Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden for a full season would be an enviable position for almost any offensive coordinator in the NFL. However, if their run defense doesn’t improve, they’re in loads of trouble still.
The Raiders are a much improved franchise on paper. The added depth in the defensive backfield and at wide receiver. Assuming Russell takes the reigns this season,
there will be no ridiculous quarterback controversy between a #1 overall draft pick and Andrew Walter, who wouldn’t be recognized out of his Raider uniform by his own cousin. However, their atrocious rush defense from last season lingers, as does the lack of enough offensive lineman to keep out divisional rush specialists Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips, Elvis Dumervil, Tamba Hali or Glen Dorsey. This team may just be exciting enough to watch, but even in this iffy division, will not make it above .500. All apologies to the most psychotic fans in the game.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) 7-9
Wait, Herm Edwards hasn’t been fired yet? Really? That can’t be right…
One of the most ridiculous universal sentiments following the 2008 draft was the amazing job Kansas City did to improve their team. They traded their best defensive lineman (And NFL sack leader) for the fourth pick in the draft, then used that pick to improve their defensive line. Your head spinning yet? Mine was for nearly a month. The most recent example of such backwards draft strategy happened in 2007, when Miami, having traded Wes Welker for a second round pick, subsequently used their first round pick to replace him with Ted Ginn, Jr. Shortly after, Welker proved to be one of the more talented receivers and kick returners in the league, driving the dagger farther into the Dolphins’ collective heart more and more with each league-leading reception. Also, I don’t see how making common sense draft picks makes you the “Winner of the NFL Draft,” anyway. Every expert listed Kansas City among the best drafting teams, but wasn’t this clearly because they had the best picks? The Chiefs had two first round picks, one of just a few teams with such luck. Once thought to be the best prospect in this draft class, Glen Dorsey fell to them at number four. Then, they filled a very glaring and serious need at offensive line at number 15 with Branden Albert, by all accounts an animal at offensive guard who will help Larry Johnson get downfield like he has in years past. It was as if Kansas City won the lottery with Dorsey, then instead of getting greedy with the money, they were responsible and paid off their debts first, with Albert. Is this truly a genius draft strategy and something to be applauded? Have so many teams screwed up their drafts so badly that simple logic and common sense is now regarded as being the winner of the draft?
A healthy Larry Johnson and an improved offensive line will help them get better, but until they get more players resembling defenders than the reanimated corpses of Ty Law and Donnie Edwards, Derrick Johnson and Glen Dorsey, they will continue to wallow in mediocrity in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL.
And… You’re really serious about Herm Edwards, huh? Still has a job? Incredible…
Predictions
Division Winners: New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego
Wild Card Teams: Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans
Final Four: New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Houston
AFC Championship: New England over Houston
So there you have it, all you need to know about the upcoming AFC season! Look to Part 2: NFC coming this weekend.