(NFL - 12 = x) Part III…

Obviously, I always consider my fantasy football leagues the best in existence. I use the point-per-reception format, award one points per 10 yards rushing and receiving, and six points per touchdown. I believe this format truly rewards the highest-performing players in the NFL. Some people don’t believe in PPR, but I think it’s the only way to reward go-to guys in the league. If someone catches 12 passes in a game for 100 yards, isn’t he more valuable to his team than a guy (say, Bernard Berrian for example) who catches two passes for 100 yards? All those first downs and progressive yardage gains? Especially for running backs, these catches should be rewarded with one point a piece, in my opinion. That being said, here are the top 10 fantasy backs in my league this season (through week 13):

1. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears: 232 Fantasy Points (1012 Rushing Yards, 6 TD, 48 Receptions, 358 Receiving Yards, 4 TD)

2. Thomas Jones, New York Jets: 217 (1088, 11, 27, 161, 2)

3. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys: 215 (870, 7, 47, 366, 2)

4. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: 201 (1311, 9, 18, 94)

5. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: 200 (552, 11, 43, 415)

6. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers: 197 (955, 11, 18, 112, 2)

6. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins: 197 (1228, 7, 23, 187)

8. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons: 195 (1208, 13, 4, 11)

8. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans: 195 (904, 8, 34, 250, 1)

10. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers: 194 (926, 6, 39, 354, 1)

There’s your top-10 performing backs this season: 2 rookies, 4 first-year starters (Not including rookies: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner) and no LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai or Brian Westbrook.

At the very least, Westbrook is #11 with 193 fantasy points, and LDT is just behind him with 192. However, Steven Jackson ranks 27th with 130 points, and Joseph Addai (granted because of injuries) is ranked 35th overall. Addai, with 113 points is behind even his teammate Dominic Rhodes.

Obviously, there is much more to a running back than stats. A huge part of a back’s game which there is no way to track is pass blocking. There are some running backs in the league who take this incredibly seriously, such as LDT, MJD and Kevin Faulk. Then there are some, like Shaun Alexander before people realized he was a fraud, who would rather get a head start getting in line for Gatorade on 3rd down than trying to take on a linebacker coming free off the edge or flare out for an outlet pass.

Because of the many, many factors and arguments that could be involved in this discussion, I simplified this as much as possible by coming up with the three running backs I feel are the most complete players, and explanations as to why they’re there.
And heeere… Weee… Go!

3. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys:

A do-it-all guy.  “Marion the Barbarian” is a bruising back with the mindset of a hard-hitting free safety.  Never one for fancy running, there may be no player in the NFL (save for Brandon Jacobs) who elicits such fear in the hearts of would-be tacklers.

A part of his game, surprisingly outstanding because of his smash-mouth style, is his talents as a receiving threat out of the backfield.  His 47 catches are second only to Matt Forte, and he leads all running backs in receiving yards (Although to be fair, Reggie Bush had comfortable leads in both categories before injuring his knee).

Averaging just under 4 yards a carry and just under 8 yards per catch and never shying away from laying a devastating block or two, Marion Barber sits at #3 on my ultimate running back depth chart.

2.  LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers:

A down-season (From my calculation, mostly due to Philip Rivers learning how to throw downfield instead of having to throw to LDT 75 times per year) for LDT is still very good for the future Hall of Famer.  Sure, his stats aren’t what they were, and he’s another year older, and we all know running back 29 is normal guy 36, but this guy is still the class of NFL running backs.

Whether it be cutting up the field, bowling over safeties, flying over the offensive line for a touchdown, taking screen passes for scores or staying back to take on the toughest of pass rushers, there’s still no one who has done it as consistently as LaDainian Tomlinson for several years now.

1.  Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

The only one out of these three currently averaging over 4 yards per carry, Jones-Drew is beyond a doubt the most versatile running back in the NFL.  He’s a human highlight reel of bone-crushing blocks on linebackers twice his size (Anyone remember him pancaking Shawne Merriman coming in on a blitz last season?  Impossible to forget.  Whether helped or hindered by his short stature (”Pocket Hercules” stands an unimposing 5′7″ but packs 208 pounds into a body of solid muscle), he’s one of the best goalline and short-yardage backs in the game.

In addition to being able to power through defensive players, he possesses break-away speed that seems physically impossible for legs that don’t measure much longer than your common table lamp.  His 43 catches are just a few off the league lead, and averaging almost 10 yards per catch is something even quite a few wide receivers would be envious of.

As if that weren’t enough, his skills as a kick returner rival the best in the game.  Brushing off the sterotypical view of a kick returner (Lean, fast guys who can outrun scared deer but with no other specialized skills), the diminutive rising star cuts, dashes and flat-out runs over those that oppose him.  And when someone does get their arms around him, he’s one of the toughest guys to tackle possibly in the history of the sport.

Yes, it’s up for debate, and everyone has a different opinion.  And, yes, it was insanely difficult for me to keep Brian Westbrook off this list (I still may replace Barber with Westbrook as I type this).  But, if I were building a franchise and needed a stud running back, there is no one right now I would rather have than Maurice Jones-Drew.  The most dangerous back in the NFL.

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SAN DIEGO (-9 1/2) over Oakland
CHICAGO (-6 1/2) over Jacksonville
Minnesota (E) over DETROIT
Houston (+5 1/2) over GREEN BAY
TENNESSEE (-13 1/2) over Cleveland
Cincinnati (+13 1/2) over INDIANAPOLIS
Atlanta (+3) over NEW ORLEANS
Philadelphia (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS
BUFFALO (-1) over Miami
DENVER (-9) over Kansas City
SAN FRANCISCO (+4) over New York Jets
SEATTLE (+4 1/2) over New England
ARIZONA (-14) over St. Louis
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Dallas
BALTIMORE (-5) over Washington
CAROLINA (-3) over Baltimore

Last Week:
Me: 9-7
LVK: 5-11

Season:
Me: 80-89
LVK: 84-85

I did a lot of analysis last week, talked myself into some bad picks and managed to get 7 right. In my pick ‘em league, I had 8 right because I forgot to change my jets/KC pick and KC ended up covering the spread a la 3 Brett Favre interceptions. Weak Brett, very weak.

I’m going to throw in my fantasy sleepers for the week too. If you read my picks last week, you saw my top fantasy sleepers were Leon Washington, Matt Schaub (by the way, I ended up signing him and playing him last week instead of Eli Manning, even though I said I wouldn’t because he always hurts himself in the first quarter or before when he’s on my fantasy team), and Roscoe Parrish. I went 2 of 3 on these picks. Let’s see how I did

Leon Washington, RB NYJ - 67 yards Rushing, 3 Rec. 34 yards, 2 TD’s, 173 Return yards. In my PPR league that netted me 32 points, best on my team and 4th in the league overall last week. That’s a correct pick if I ever saw one.

Matt Schaub, QB HOU - 280 yards Passing, 3 TD’s. That’s a win right there.

Roscoe Parrish, WR BUF - 1 Rec 3 yards, 1 lost fumble. Whoops

Fantasy Sleepers - Last Week: 2-1 Overall: 2-1

This weeks sleepers

Anthony Fasano, TE MIA - If you need a Tight End this week, check out this fella. Denver has a terrible pass defense, and with Champ Bailey on the corner, look for Pennington to be checking down to slot receivers Ted Ginn or Greg Camarillo, whoever is not attached to Bailey, and Anthony Fasano. My prediction: 5 Rec 53 yards, 1 TD.

David Garrard, QB JAX - Garrard is a safe play this week at QB. He’s 81% owned, but most likely sits on the bench of whoever owns him (unless it’s a 2 QB league). My prediction: 278 yards Passing, 18 Rushing, 2 TD’s 0 INT’s

Greg Camarillo, WR MIA - Back to this Miami air attack for my final pick. Camarillo is only owned in 14% of Yahoo leagues but sits around the 30 catch 370 yard mark. If Champ Bailey isn’t tasked with shutting him down this week (and that’s a big IF), he should make his presence known to the shaky Denver secondary. My expectation is Bailey will be focusing on Ted Ginn, who is faster and more athletic than Camarillo. My prediction: 7 Rec 92 Yards, 1 TD

Onto my week 9 picks!

NY Jets (+5.5) over BUFFALO

Buffalo was brought down to earth last week with a hard loss to the Dolphins in Miami. The one item of interest I bring away from that is with Tom Brady out and the dolphins playing well against eastern foes, this is going to be an even more competitive division than I anticipated. I expect a bounce back week from Buffalo, but won’t put Roscoe Parrish on my fantasy team this week. Therefore I predict he will score a TD, and the Bills win by less than 6 points.

Detroit (+12.5) over CHICAGO

I can’t imagine Chicago a 12.5 point favorite over anyone, but this year against this Lions team I guess I’ll buy it. Matt Forte should run all over the field on Sunday as Detroit (and oh god I can’t believe I’m saying this) looks for an answer to stop Kyle Orton. Orton has tossed up a QB rating of 91.4. To put this in perspective, he’s tied 11th in this category with Donovan McNabb, and is better than both Mannings, Favre, Roethlisberger, Palmer, and Anderson. You want to talk paridy in the NFL, look at QB ratings around the league and you’ll see Chad Pennington, Kurt Warner, and Jason Campbell all ranked in the top 5. All this said, I’m taking the points.

Jacksonville (-7.5) over CINCINNATI

I will never live in Cincinnati. I have never once spelled that city correctly on the first try. Carson Palmer is out again, and last week they were blown out by the Texans to the tune of 35-6. Cincy is a perfect matchup for the Jags. The black and orange are ranked 28th against the run and allow an average QB rating over 96. David Garrard should be able to move the ball down the field in a ball control offense and score on every drive. Every drive I said!

Baltimore (+1.5) over CLEVELAND

A trend this week, I’m picking road teams. This will surely come back to haunt me. Baltimore and Cleveland play each other tough. In their last 15 matchups, the Ravens lead 8-7. I expect Baltimore to be able to run the ball effectively in this game with the Browns giving up, on average 141 yards rushing per game. Baltimore, on the other hand, runs the ball for 142 yards per game. The birds should control the tempo in this one against the toilet turds and win this one via a Derek Anderson sack, fumble, returned for a TD.

TENNESSEE (-5.5) over Green Bay

At this point, I don’t care who they’re playing. They went into Indy, a bitter division rival, and won going away. They’re just plain better than other teams right now and control the tempo. Last week, they proved they could do it with the passing game, keeping the Colts off balance the whole game. I would expect them to return to the rushing attack all day against the pack and their 25th ranked run defense.

Tampa Bay (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY

Tampa Bay is a better team than the Jets, and I took the Jets -13 over KC. Galloway is back in the mix for tampa, and although he didn’t do a whole lot against Dallas (neither did the rest of Tampa’s offense), I would expect Tampa to score some points and Galloway to make at least one big play. Expect turnovers to be the difference maker here and Tyler Thigpen to throw a few picks to this Pirate secondary.

Arizona (-3) over ST. LOUIS

We look to the sky in this NFC west matchup. Arizona should put a pounding on the Rams secondary, and with Steven Jackson optimistically questionable in this game, I wouldn’t expect St. Louis to come out of this one with a win. Arizona could be a 10 point favorite here and I’d still take them.

MINNESOTA (-4.5) over Houston

These teams haven’t faced each other since 2004, so game film study could be the difference maker here. The Vikings passing game is attrocious with a capital TROCIOUS, but in a game like this, I like the home team. Houston hasn’t won on the road this year, and will manage to lose by 7 despite Andre Johnson’s 176 yards receiving.

Miami (+3.5) over DENVER

I like this matchup for Miami, even on the road. Chad Pennington is ranked 5th in QB rating, and we saw what the Patriots’ high school quarterback did to the Broncos secondary. As long as Chad keeps it away from Champ Bailey, he’s looking at a +300 yard passing day with Ronnie Brown eclipsing the 100 yard mark on the ground.

Atlanta (-3) over OAKLAND

Let’s stick with road teams, shall we? Atlanta played Philly tough last week, though not quite tough enough to beat the spread. The Raiders are not the Eagles though, and after seeing rookie Joe Flacco hand it to Oakland last week, I wouldn’t expect much less from Matt Ryan. Oakland won’t have an answer for Roddy White or Michael Turner, and Atlanta will be leaving the west coast with a victory.

NY GIANTS (-9) over Dallas

Giants are 4-0 at home this year, and Dallas continued to struggle last week in a “wow we really dodged a bullet there” game against Tampa. The Cowboys ain’t the Cowboys with Brad Johnson under the center. Rumors are abound that Brooks Bollinger could see action if Johnson struggles early. What a mess in Big D, they won’t come out of the Big Apple with any questions answered.

Philadelphia (-6.5) over SEATTLE

This game is of particular interest to me, because I’ll be stuck watching it. Seahawks starting QB Matt Hasselbeck is not expected to play again, which means sacks and interceptions abound for Seneca Wallace. Good luck, pal. You’re going to need it against a team that looks like it could be playing in February as long as McNabb and Westbrook are in the lineup.

New England (+6) over INDIANAPOLIS

Indy will probably bounce back from last week’s loss to Tennessee with a good showing at home against the ailing Patriots. Every year this game is a must watch, and will be again this year. If for no other reason than to put on display two 2007 juggernauts, who in 2008, better resemble jugger-nots. I miss the Pats 2007 season, but I have to love the NFL overall for creating a system in which any team can win it all any given year. Nobody starts every season thinking “we’re the Kansas City Royals of football.”

WASHINGTON (+2) over Pittsburgh

I just want to see Washington win this one, and that’s my pick. This is a strength vs. strength matchup (Clinton Portis, top rusher in football against Pittsburgh’s top run defense.) It’s Monday night, winner makes the fewest errors. Campbell doesn’t turn the ball over and that will be the game.

Last week: 7-5 Overall: 58-51

Š

I simply don’t know what to make of the NFL anymore. I don’t care who you are, what your level of expertise is or how long you’ve been doing what you’re doing, there’s no way you’re hovered anywhere near 70% on correctly picking winners this year. It’s just impossible.

Vegas has recouped all their money and then some from the Patriots’ remarkable run last season, and one has to think they’re in on this. How can all these games end up so far off the general perceptions of them? The NFL has truly succeeded in having more parity than any other professional sport.

But that’s not what we’re here to talk about. We’re here to discuss how fantastic I’ve been in predicting everything that’s happened this season in the fantasy universe. And, now that we’re finished with that, we can get on to everything I missed:

Here’s what I got wrong:

1. Santana Moss, WR - Washington Redskins… Sort of…

He’s responded to me stating his washed-upedness with a terrific half-season so far, averaging over five catches a game and over 82 yards. But despite his yardage (658, 5th in NFL) and touchdowns (5, T-2nd), he submitted two awful performances in two consecutive weeks that almost made my points about him totally valid. In week 5 he didn’t register a catch, then came out in week 6 with a two catch, 22 yard performance. After this I thought my prediction had materialized exactly, but he recovered very well from this dip. However, with his hamstring ailing him as week 9 approaches, we’ll soon see what he has left for this season.

2. Michael Turner, RB - Atlanta Falcons… Sort of…

This is another guy who started of great, but has come very hard back down to earth. At the the semi-halfway point, he is still one of the highest rated fantasy football players in the game, with 655 rushing yards and five touchdowns. However, his receiving stats (3 catches for 11 yards) make him all but a liability in Point Per Reception (PPR) leagues. His stats are also slanted by the fact he broke out with an outrageous 220 yards in week 1. However, after we learned how absolutely pitiful the Detroit Lions would be this year, this achievement was diminished somewhat. There is also something to be said for the improvement of this team as a whole. With a reliable, talented quarterback leading the team and a group of hardworking players on the defensive and offensive side of the ball playing to the best of their abilities, running games can sometimes be good by association. Since his week 1 performance, Michael Turner has averaged only 73 yards per game with four scores in six games. He is averaging 4.5 yards per carry for the season, but since the first game, he’s averaging an entire yard less, only 3.5 ypc for the other 6 games. Not exactly ideal for a #1 fantasy back.
If you haven’t noticed, my ridiculous ego is preventing me from admitting total misses so far. We’ll see later if I can find something more complete that I missed.

3. Benjamin Watson, TE - New England Patriots

Speaking of total misses… I suggested that after the first 7 or so tight ends were taken, Tony Scheffler of Denver and Benjamin Watson from New England would be premier bargains and put up numbers comparable to the best tight ends in the league. Swing, and a miss. Not just a miss, a Jason Varitek, swinging at a change-up down and away from a great right-handed pitcher type of miss. After seven games, Big Benjamin has seven catches for 70 yards, or 1 catch for 10 yards per game. Yeah I’m going to go ahead and admit I missed that one. I will make the small point that tight-end loving Tom Brady has been injured all season, but nothing excuses that type of output. My apologies.

4. Who I told you to pass on…

In my reach for/pass on columns, I suggested that it was worth waiting and/or passing on Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson. Both guys are in the 30 catch/300 yard area, Smith having 4 touchdowns and Johnson 5. A healthy Jake Delhomme has contributed to Steve Smith’s consistency, and Calvin Johnson emerged much more quickly than most people including myself imagined. Now with Roy Williams in Dallas, he’s forced more into the spotlight than ever before. He’ll certainly see tougher coverage, but the guy’s so talented I’m not sure it will make one bit of difference. Whoops…

And now everyone’s favorite part… What I Got Right…

1. Kickers

Okay, okay. I know everyone who knows anything about fantasy football knows to avoid kickers until the second-to-last or last round, but this year’s crop of kickers is so unbelievably lop-sided I feel like it needs to be mentioned here. Let’s take a look at the top kickers in my commissioned leagues (3 points for most field goals, increasing with distance, and negative points for missed chip-shots and extra points):

1. Joe Nedney, SF

2. John Kasay, Car

3. Rian Lindell, Buf

4. Shaun Suisham, Was

5. John Carney, NYG

Alright, not a bad list. In fact, after the first couple of weeks, most of these kickers were owned in most Yahoo! leagues (the fantasy page I most often use). However, in their pre-rankings, and the kickers most often drafted early and often, these are the kickers, in their pre-ranked order.

1. Nick Folk, Dal

2. Shayne Graham, Cin

3. Adam Vinatieri, Ind

4. Nate Kaeding, SD

5. Stephen Gostkowski, NE

Not a match in the top 5? Okay, it happens. Let’s continue…

6. Josh Scobee, Jax

7. Rod Bironas, Ten

8. Phil Dawson, Cle

9. Neil Rackers, Ari

10. David Akers, Phi

Not a match in the top 10? Now that’s getting a tiny bit out of hand, but, I suppose it still happens. Moving on…

11. Mason Crosby, GB

12. Jeff Reed, Pit

13. Josh Brown, StL

14. Ryan Longwell, Min

15. Robbie Gould, Chi

16. Kris Brown, Hou

(No… I’m not kidding…)

17. Mike Nugent, NYG

And finally…

18. Shaun Suisham, Was

17 (SEVENTEEN!) kickers were pre-ranked higher than any of the top five highest-scoring kickers in the NFL so far. Not only that, but Suisham’s still only the fourth highest actual ranking kicker this season. Here’s where the rest of the guys fell in the preranks:

26. Joe Nedney, SF (Ranked #1)

23. John Kasay, Car (Ranked #2)

21. Rian Lindell, Buf (Ranked #3)

24. John Carney, NYG (Ranked #5)

The icing on the cake? Adam Vinatieri (Pre-Ranked #3 in kickers) is currently ranked #30 out of 30. That’s right. Dead… Last… You can’t make this stuff up.

2. My Draft Diary

Despite wasting 2 high picks on Tom Brady and Carson Palmer, I was able to get (In a PPR league!) Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Greg Jennings, Lee Evans, Chris Johnson (in the fourth-to-last round), picked up Chad Pennington and Matt Ryan as free agent backups at quarterback and am currently in 1st place in that league. In addition, my choice to pick up P-Will, Antonio Cromartie, DeMeco Ryans and an assortment of the best defensive players in the game has provided me with a squad of IDPs that can outscore anyone’s offense on any given week. I should give lectures on IDP, PPR leagues I swear to god.

3. Pass On: Willie Parker, Marvin Harrison, Tony Romo, Adrian Peterson

A few things: I realize Parker and Romo were only bad decisions so far because of injuries, but I don’t care, I’m taking credit for them. Marvin Harrison was a truly bad player to reach for this season. Finally, remember that I didn’t say pass on Adrian Peterson, I simply said to pick LDT first. I made a point of stating his higher potential value in PPR leagues, and his lack of competition with Michael Turner now gone. Adrian does not catch passes like LDT, has one serious knee injury in one year of playing, and has Chester Taylor to compete with still. You’re doing well if you got Peterson, you’re doing better if you got LDT.

4. Reggie Bush

First, I need to vent. My two highest paid players on my auction league team were Tom Brady and Reggie Bush. Both injured, and both would have had us in the top three in that league right now, without a doubt. Reggie Bush again (since this is a PPR league) was one of the top-scoring running backs, and our low-money picks such as DeSean Jackson, Derrick Mason and Chris Perry (we got decent performance out of him before benching him when he became ineffective and lost his job. We also only need to start one running back weekly) gave us plenty of points per week to contend seriously. Now, with the injury to Bush, I’m calling Shenanigans for everything and vetoing every trade for no reason because I’m just so angry at fantasy sports. It’s really sad to see, and I hate myself for it. But, what would you do?

Before I take off, here is the mid-season summary for you. The top five players at each position, and their stats in my PPR, IDP league (Overall Fantasy Ranking in Parentheses):

Running Backs:

(3) Reggie Bush - 294 yards rushing, 2 TDs. 42 catches, 366 yards, 3 TDs. 285 return yards, 3 TDs.

(4) Marion Barber - 611 yards rushing, 5 TDs. 32 catches, 276 yards, 2 TDs.

(6) Frank Gore - 629 yards rushing, 4 TDs. 32 catches, 311 yards, 1 TD. 1 2-point conversion.

(10) Clinton Portis - 944 yards rushing, 7 TDs. 11 catches, 77 yards.

(15) Matt Forte - 515 yards rushing, 4 TDs. 29 catches, 223 yards, 2 TDs.

Quarterbacks:

(1) Drew Brees - 2,563 yards, 15 TDs, 7 Ints.

(2) Philip Rivers - 2,038 yards, 19 TDs, 6 Ints, 2 2-point conversions.

(5) Aaron Rodgers - 1,668 yards, 12 TDs, 4 Ints. 113 yards rushing, 3 TDs.

(7) Kurt Warner - 2,089 yards, 14 TDs, 6 Ints.

(9) Jay Cutler - 1,862 yards, 13 TDs, 7 Ints. 84 yards rushing.

Wide Receivers:

(8) Santana Moss - 42 catches, 658 yards, 5 TDs. 114 return yards, 1 TD.

(11) Andre Johnson - 56 catches, 772 yards, 2 TDs.

(12) Roddy White - 43 catches, 679 yards, 5 TDs.

(13) Larry Fitzgerald - 43 catches, 661 yards, 5 TDs.

(18) Greg Jennings - 37 catches, 685 yards, 4 TDs.

Tight Ends:

Jason Witten - 46 catches, 549 yards, 2 TDs.

Antonio Gates - 30 catches, 403 yards, 5 TDs.

Chris Cooley - 40 catches, 451 yards, 1 TD.

Tony Gonzalez - 33 catches, 369 yards, 3 TDs.

Owen Daniels - 32 catches, 395 yards, 2 TDs.

Defensive Teams:

Chicago - 114 PA, 14 sacks, 1 safety, 10 Ints, 6 fumble recoveries, 5 TDs, 2 blocked kicks.

Tampa Bay - 114 PA, 14 sacks, 12 Ints, 3 fumble recoveries, 4 TDs, 1 blocked kick.

Philadelphia - 131 PA, 23 sacks, 1 safety, 8 Ints, 7 fumble recoveries, 2 TDs, 1 return TD.

Tennessee - 87 PA, 18 sacks, 12 Ints, 4 fumble recoveries, 2 TDs, 1 blocked kick.

Green Bay - 151 PA, 12 sacks, 13 Ints, 1 fumble recovery, 5 TDs, 1 blocked kick, 1 return TD.

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Don’t forget to email all fantasy questions and/or comments to bobby@sportsomedy.com

I need a running back to cover a bye week. I could pick up Chester Taylor for a week, or I’ve been proposed a trade of Lee Evans and Matt Forte for T.J. Houshmandzadeh. I don’t know what to do, after this weekend, he’s hard to let go…

Jeff - Fitchburg, MA

Exactly, he’s hard to let go after this weekend. Then, next week you’ll be begging people to take him because he’s stuck on the maddeningly inconsistent Bengals. Carson Palmer hasn’t fully regained his normal capabilities after his injury, and the team is simply a mess of unhappy players, betrayed coaches, inept GMs, frustrated superstars and Halloween costumes for uniforms. Do yourself a favor, and unload T.J. for two guys who will be much more consistent, even though either one of those players may not outscore him by themselves this season. Stop the insanity of paying attention to the Bengals games on Sundays and you’ll sleep much better at night.

You had St. Louis winning the NFC West and Tennessee finishing last in the AFC South. Now that the Rams are 0-3 and the Titans are 3-0, do you want to use this opportunity to defend yourself?

Todd - Falmouth, MA

I’m done defending the Rams, so I’ll explain the Titans. First of all, they have beaten two incompetent teams in Cincinnati and Houston. Secondly, I made that prediction under the assumption that Vince Young would be their quarterback for the entire season. Now, that’s not to say Kerry Collins should have the starting job, or is even a middle-of-the-road quarterback, but he’s not as boneheaded as Young and is good for a few less mistakes per game.

Additionally, their defense is better than I, or anyone else for that matter, expected. 8′9″ 560 lb. nose tackle Albert Haynesworth is at the top of his game, and D-Back Cortland Finnegan is developing into one of the best cornerbacks in the league. With the decline of Champ Bailey, I’m tempted to move him into top-2 area with Antonio Cromartie… But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Tennessee still has a long road ahead of them, Indy will only get better, same with Jacksonville, and Houston looks like they’re already done. So, for every star defensive player fighting to win the division, there is a Kerry Collins itching to throw a crippling interception and give it away.

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So here we are again… Another late article, another confused, bewildered and exasperated writer.And now… the picks…Cleveland (+3 1/2) at CincinnatiThe worst part about these two awful defenses and laughably inconsistent offenses squaring off on Sunday, is the brewing coaching controversy in Cleveland. Not that Romeo, whom I really like, will be losing his job, but that countless writers and TV analysts will be misusing the word “wherefore” in respect to his impending firing. Not only will newspapers and post game shows be littered with “Wherefore will Romeo go after Cleveland” headlines, and others of the same type, but it’s a given that they will never be corrected either. Some things just get under my skin.
Pick: BengalsHouston (+7) at Jacksonville

It seems Houston has finally found themselves a running back in Steve Slaton that can shoulder a workload needed to take the pressure off Andres Johnson and Davis. Maybe, just maybe that means they’ll become the sleeper team I predicted at the beginning of the season. It could happen. No seriously, it could!
Pick: Jaguars

Minnesota (+3) at Tennessee

Since both of these teams specialize in stopping the run, this game may very well come down to a shootout between Gus Frerotte and Kerry Collins. Until this point, the two of them were most famous for having names that either looked completely wrong every time you typed them out, or looked like a girl’s name. Now, they have a chance to live in glory in what could be the best game of the day. Or, it could be the absolute worst and most boring game ever aired on television. Either way…

Pick: Titans

Denver (-9) at Kansas City

This is the game that for some reason CBS thought Patriots fans should be watching in the Pats’ absence. Yeah, I’m not sure about that. What I am sure of however, is that Larry Johnson finally got going last week after he demanded more carries from Herm Edwards. If Damn Huard (Assuming this is the quarterback the Chiefs have settled on this week, but is subject to change) can manage the game getting the ball to Tony Gonzalez, Dwane Bowe and not fumble on the way to Johnson, they should be able to protect a 5-point-loss at home.

Pick: Chiefs

San Francisco (+5) at New Orleans

Can I use this opportunity to ask a question? San Francisco looks like they’ve finally found a bona fide star at quarterback; someone they can truly model their team around. He has made productive receivers out of guys whose names he may not even know. So, I ask you… Where is Vernon Davis in all of this? All we heard coming out of college is how this guy was the next Antonio Gates, now his fantasy owners couldn’t sell him for a bag of chips to watch the game with. That is so disappointing, that I’m going to select his team anyway.Pick: 49ers

Arizona (+1 1/2) at New York Jets

If New England beat the Jets, and Miami lost to Arizona, and New England lost to Miami, then by the transitive property… No one takes these teams seriously yet anyway…

Pick: Cardinals

Green Bay (+1) at Tampa Bay

When I was just a little guy, about 15 years ago, my father worked at an electrical supply company which did a company-wide pool in which the employees picked five games against the spread. My father always did a couple of sheets, my mother did one, and I did one as well. Even as a 10-year-old boy, I remember my mother’s weekly advice, which she assured me never failed: “Never bet the Bay teams.”

I don’t know why she had this disdain for these teams, besides the fact Tampa Bay was so bad for years previously. In the weeks we were forced to do a “Pick-all,” my mother was driven insane by the problem created by the two teams playing each other. Often times she would simply pick the home team, under protest, and complain about it for the rest of the card.

There is no point to this story, I’m just wasting time because I don’t know who to select. But, seriously, who doesn’t like a story of someone’s mother hating on NFL teams for absolutely no reason.

Pick: Packers

Atlanta (+7) at Carolina

How the Falcons’ fortunes change based on Michael Turner and Matt Ryan:

Game 1 (Win): 220 rush yards, 2 TDs; 161 pass yards, 1 TD, 0 Int 137.0 QB Rat.

Game 2 (Loss): 42 rush yards, 0 TDs; 158 pass yards, 0 TD, 2 Int 29.6 QB Rat.

Game 3 (Win): 103 rush yards, 3 TDs; 192 pass yards, 1 TD, 0 Int 120.6 QB Rat.

If we’re alternating games, it would seem the bad game would be on deck. Since the two wins were against the all-star defenses of Detroit and Kansas City, and since I personally believe Carolina’s defense is getting wildly overrated…

Pick: Falcons

San Diego (-7 1/2) at Oakland

Unbelievably, Al Davis seems to have put together a relatively decent team for 2008 despite his crazy picks in recent years. Actually, no one has survived such an insanely dangerous selection this well since John McCain selected Sarah Palin. Darren McFadden is expected to start, and they’re a home underdog. A Norv Turner team covering 8 points on the road in a hostile environment? Yeah, I’m betting that…
Pick: Raiders

Buffalo (-8) at St. Louis

I really wish someone had come up to me before I wrote my predictions article, and told me that this St. Louis team wouldn’t attempt to stop the run this year, in addition to benching starting quarterback Marc Bulger (Lifetime QB Rating 87.6, lifetime concussions: 0) for Trent Green (Lifetime QB Rating 86.9, lifetime concussions: 87.6), and put him behind an offensive line that couldn’t keep a Jehovah’s Witness out of their own homes, I’m pretty sure I could have resisted the urge to call them division winners. Despite the Rams being a home dog, they’re still on my “Don’t Place Money on This Team Under any Circumstances” list… Jerks.

Pick: Bills

Washington (+11) at Dallas

Just a warning for those of you planning to watch this game in its entirety on television: Prepare for 2 1/2 - 3 hours of ranting and raving about the high quality teams in the NFC East. Included in this endless discussion will include, but are not limited to, the following:

1. How Jason Campbell is developing into a star, and joining the ranks of the best division of quarterbacks in the NFL.

2. How Tony Romo has a plethora of weapons, a stockpile of receiving threats, an overabundance of talent, an excess of pro-bowlers, and an unfair overabundance of fantastically talented receivers, gifted route-running tight-ends, and powerful, versatile running backs that may or may not be the best the Cowboys have had since 1947.

3. How the Super Bowl winner will undoubtedly come from the NFC East, and how it could be either one of these two teams, although it could only actually be the ‘Boys.

4. How Clinton Portis is running “Like a man on a mission,” “With the utmost determination,” “With purpose,” and “Like a bat out of hell.”

Save yourself the John McCain-style repetitive rhetoric, and assume the Cowboys will win by ten in a high scoring affair, and the boys at Guinness may have to be reached at home to check the actual figures for the record number of generic football colloquialisms made over the course of a four quarter game.
Pick: Redskins

Philadelphia (-3) at Chicago

I love Philadelphia this year. DeSean Jackson might be my favorite rookie, and he’s already driven me (and about 2.3 million other people) completely insane with his premature spikeulation in the best game of the season so far. Donovan McNabb is again on his pre-injury roll, Brian Westbrook is Brian Westbrook, and the latest gossip is receiver Hank Baskett has recently bagged former “Girls Next Door” star Kendra Wilkinson. There’s a lot to love about the Eagles, for sure. But home dogs with great defenses? Even more to love there…
Pick: Bears

Baltimore (+5 1/2) at Pittsburgh

Rashard Mendenhall will start for the injured Willie Parker this week, and already sabotaged himself by text messaging Ravens running back Ray Rice, informing him of his intentions to run up his own fantasy scores. Nothing helps your own cause in your debut as an NFL starter like giving the other team bulletin board material and painting a gigantic bull’s eye on the back of your helmet. Way to go, Rashard. On the other hand, it might be a good time to start looking into trades for the guy in your fantasy league. He’s going to start this week, and FastWillie’s got a knee injury, which always heal up in a few days for running backs, right? He may not rock the fantasy world this week, but the kid’s got too much talent not to succeed in Pittsburgh as a starter. Even if it is temporary.

Pick: Steelers

Last Week:
Me: 11-5
LVK: 11-5

Season:
Me: 24-22
LVK: 28-18

(Editor’s Note: The 1st two drafts of this article were scrapped due to their frighteningly striking resemblance to suicide notes.)
I was almost to the Yarmouth House restaurant, where my girlfriend’s great-aunt’s 90th birthday part was being held. I was prepared emotionally to miss most of the game. Sometimes, being in a committed relationship means making sacrifices such as missing out on seeing the first two quarters of Patriots opening day. I was ready for this. I had accepted it.

But, nothing in the world of sports, love, family, or anything else can prepare you for “…And Tom Brady is down. He’s down and he’s clutching his knee. And he’s hurt bad.”

I was in the car when this awful sound came over the radio. The car ride lasted just long enough to let me hear the bad news. I could even tell just how bad it was from the sounds coming through. When Gil Santos’s voice tells you the reigning NFL MVP is down, clutching his knee, and the crowd noise goes from a dull roar to dead silent, you know it’s bad. If you listened carefully, you could hear the crowd uniformly stand and start the march toward the beer stands. You could also hear, if you listened even more intently, the sounds of Robert and Jonthan Kraft popping the caps off of their bottles of Valium.

Besides crushing me as a fan, the news of Tom Brady’s lost season robbed me financially. I recently did an auction draft (My first fantasy football auction ever) with a friend of mine with a $200 price tag. Because the league awarded six points per passing touchdown, where the universal average is four, I saw elite quarterbacks as extremely valuable. Therefore, we decided to make our highest paid player (approximately 1/4 of our entire payroll) none other than Tom Terrific. On Sunday, I received a series of text messages in the following order:

“He walked off on his own power. Hes fine…”

“R u hearing this is bad? Cuz I am…”

“This isnt good”

“This really, REALLY isn’t good”

“We could have saved that money to wipe ourselves. I h8 football”

How quickly the fortunes of a team can change. Fantasy or otherwise. This was horrifying. Yesterday morning, the always classy New York Post ran a picture of Brady with a headline screaming: “Yahoo: Brady out for Season.” Very cleverly done. They printed the headline as if Yahoo.com was the one who broke this story, so they could ever-so-secretly celebrate the season-ending and career-threatening knee injury to the absolute face of the modern-day NFL. Way to go.

This is the unfun part of being the villains of the NFL. As if it weren’t bad enough for everyone to have a field day with our Super Bowl loss, but now other cities are celebrating potentially devastating injuries as if they were an earned victory. This is what happens to this newspaper when the Yankees fall to 4th place I guess.

Besides what may be the end of my fantasy career, and the beginning of the Matt Cassel Patriot Dynasty (That feels better no matter how delusional it is), here are a few things that went upside-sideways on Sunday:

1. I went a very respectable 7-9 on opening weekend with my picks. Considering two 9+ point underdogs won outright, and the league MVP’s season ended before many lazy west coasters woke up on Sunday, I’d say this was a small victory, despite the fact my girlfriend who admittedly knows nothing about any team that doesn’t play its home games at the Razor, went 9-7. Now, it’s nothing but winning weeks ahead. I will not do what ESPN’s Bill Simmons does and lose to his girlfriend in this competition. I just won’t do it. I can’t.

Speaking of ESPN, is there any greater sound than the excitement, anticipation and about-to-scream-out-loud-how-much-I-love-football in Chris Berman’s voice the first time he announces the start of “NFL Countdown” every year? I’ve heard the same crazed excitement in dangerously psychotic mental patients when they’re about to get their first cigarette break in three days while in nursing school in college. Now THAT is love for the game!

2. Dear Michael Turner and Willie Parker (#’s 1 and 2 in fantasy football, respectively): Thanks a lot. Right after I said you’ll be backing up your counterparts by mid-October, you both turned in the best game of your careers. Unbelievable. I’ve never had the tables turn that quickly on me before. However, let it be known that I still have no faith in either of you. Parker scored more in this one game than he did all of last season, and he did it against a severely under-prepared and over-matched Houston team that flailed around helplessly for 60 minutes like Apollo Creed in the minutes before the end of his fight against Drago.

And, while we’re on the subject, Detroit was completely unprepared as well. It doesn’t get much worse in the area of game-prep when your opponent’s first passing play goes for a 62-yard touchdown from a rookie quarterback to a receiver with 14 total touchdowns in his previous four years in the league. Yes, the season has started, and no, you haven’t gotten any better as a team. Thank God you got Rudi Johnson, though. Let’s hope he can pull his laughable weight in the defensive backfield.

3. I absolutely have to stop picking San Diego to do anything even remotely respectable as a football team before the eighth game of the season. What in the world is Norv Turner doing with this team? After countless journalists and TV analysts and every other kind of person who can make predictions publicly available chose this team to win the Super Bowl, they put up an epic dud against a Carolina Panthers team missing its only great player. What kind of coach lets this happen? IN THE CHARGERS’ OWN STADIUM!? A hurt Peyton Manning losing to a Bears team with a healthy, incredibly tough defense in the Colts’ new stadium is one thing. The Panthers marching into the presumptive champions’ home and embarrassing the Chargers with a 4th quarter game-winning drive is the kind of game you look back on in January and think: “If only we’d won that game, we might have ended up better than 3-13 this season.”

3a. Norv Turner is useless.

4. I swear I don’t overreact to Week 1 performances, but my sleeper picks of Houston and St. Louis are looking absolutely horrendous. Both got bullied right off the field in their season openers, and the Rams’ star players submitted dismal fantasy numbers. By dismal, of course, I mean completely non-existent. I actually drafted Torry Holt for the first time this season, and he rewarded me by catching one pass for 9 yards. If I weren’t in a point-per-reception league, this would be worth absolutely nothing. I’m still on board, but I’m going to take back every nice thing I said about him and Steven Jackson one at a time until they start producing. I don’t want to do it, but I will out of love.

5. As of today, the highest ranked fantasy wide receiver is one Eddie Royal, a Denver Bronco rookie out of Virginia Tech. Rounding out the top five? Hines Ward, Hank Baskett, Randy Moss and Devery Henderson. Need any more reasons not to make knee-jerk free agent pickups after opening weekend?

6. Buh-buh-buh-Bretty and the Jets. Now the favorites in the AFC East after the Patriots’ loss of Tom Brady, the Jets are two-point favorites against New England on Sunday. I want to take this opportunity to let everyone know that the Patriots are not “doomed.” 10 quick reasons why:

1. Bill Belichick - The New England Patriots have the best coach in the NFL, who seems to revel in turning his team’s and his own adversity into opportunities to bring his opponents to their knees. The National Football League’s resident badass coach is the one and only leader who could potentially salvage this season.
2. Rodney Harrison - I’d like to officially welcome back the “Nobody thought we could do it” mantra circa 2001-2003. For the first time since they held the most powerful Colts’ offense in history to three points, and subsequently putting up 41 on the superb Steelers’ defense the following week, this phrase will be true.
3. Defensive Athleticism - Everyone knows about the mindset and mental toughness of this defense, but last year, lack of speed and aging players were glaring weaknesses. However, drafting Jerod Mayo (looking good enough to be in the running for ROY later this season) and speedy defensive backs, as well as signing Deltha O’Neal (Who picked off Brett Favre twice in the only game he ever played against him - just thought I’d let you know that), will help to speed up an already well-coached, smart, physical defense.
4. The Little Giants “Our best player who happened to be a girl decided to cheerlead instead of play so we’re going to come together, play harder than ever before, and win anyway!” factor. Okay, so Brady didn’t secretly want to cheerlead instead of quarterback, but I like the comparison anyway. Only instead of Rick Moranis dorking his way into a Super Bowl showdown, Bill Belichick will craft a perplexing blend of power running, Faulk/Maroney screens, over-the-middle “Welkers” and out-of-nowhere bombs that will still leave opponents feeling burned as well as somehow violated. The offensive line will fight as hard as ever, the defense will find strength it never knew it had, and we will definitely see a play called “The Annexation of Puerto Rico” to win a game in the final seconds to assure the Patriots a playoff spot. It’s getting a little easier to see, isn’t it?
5. Right now you’re thinking: “Okay, Bobby. I figure Matt Cassel can screen pass, handoff and hit Wes Welker ten times a game. You think he’ll hit Randy Moss downfield consistently Impossible.” Well, according to numerous sources, MC has a super arm, and may be just as good as Brady in long passes (No one will argue this was Brady’s strong suit). If his O-Line (with its 3 2007 pro-bowlers) stays healthy, he’ll make plenty of these this season.
6. Matt Cassel has served as Tom Brady’s backup for three years now, holding a clipboard for the entire time, unless on garbage-time duty. He’s called plays in, he’s heard checks, he’s read defenses, he’s seen what’s worked, and he’s seen what’s gone for six in the wrong direction. He is a far better option to take this team over than an unemployably washed-up Daunte Culpepper, a spleen-deprived Chris Simms, or a journeyman who is most famous for being the guy the Pats didn’t draft because he was four inches shorter than Tom Brady.
7. Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren make up the meanest, most disruptive and destructive three-man defensive line in the game. With Jerod Mayo and a healthy Rodney Harrison making enough tackles to allow Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas to stay at their natural outside linebacker positions, the pressure on opposing quarterbacks should be some of the most intense in the league. So intense, in fact, that it should match, and even surpass the pressure on Matt Cassel involved in taking over for the man who could end up being referred to as the undisputed greatest quarterback of all time before his career is through.
8. The Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL for absolutely no reason whatsoever. The end result of these types of statistics are never as they first appear to be. For instance, a couple of years ago the Patriots were supposed to have an easy schedule, then it ended up being the hardest and half of the “bad teams” they were supposed to play ended up making the playoffs. However, since the play the terrible West divisions this season, it is a good bet this schedule will remain soft for the entirety of the season.
9. Wes Welker and Randy Moss combined for over 200 catches last season. It is hard to dispute that they are the best receiving tandem a young, inexperienced quarterback could possibly imagine, let alone ask for.
10. The Patriots have won three Super Bowls on the strength of teamwork and scheming. Players show up with the intent to do just their job, and their job only, as well as they can possibly do it. While the Patriots won’t go undefeated this season again, and they will win less games without Brady, they will still make the playoffs with relative ease. They are still one of the best teams in the league, and certainly in the AFC East. Instead of dominating 14 or 15 games, they may just win 11-13; some of which will be very close. Fear not, Pats fans. Your team is down, but they are definitely not out.

7. One more thing about this past weekend: Cleveland is going to be painful to watch this season. I can already see this team unraveling. They received too much output from Jamal Lewis, Derek Anderson and their amazing kick returner Joshua Cribbs to repeat their scoring output from last season. Missing a tremendous opportunity to trade Derek Anderson for draft picks, and rolling the dice with Brady Quinn and some great young players, they are in the process of falling flat on their face. Now, with two overpaid quarterbacks, a brewing controversy at that position, a powerful yet slow running back at the back-9 of his career, one terrific offensive lineman, receiver, tight end and kick returner they will try to make a run this year. Trading Derek Anderson to the Chiefs for their Glenn Dorsey or Brandon Flowers pick, or to any number of other teams for any number of defensive picks is a lost opportunity that will definitely haunt this team for the coming years. I had them at 9-7 because of the weaklings in their division, but even against those cupcake teams they’ll be lucky to reach .500. Sorry, Romeo.

Once I sort my fantasy teams out and buy some Rogaine to get some of the hair back that I tore out on Sunday afternoon, I’ll return with the picks for this week. I love this time of year.

Q:  I have the fifth pick in a point per reception league, and quarterbacks get six points per touchdown pass.  I’m assuming LDT, AP, SJ and Addai will be gone.  Would you pick Frank Gore or Tom Brady here?  PPR makes me think Gore, but 6 points per TD pass?  That screams Brady, I’m stuck!

- Ben M. ~ Cape Cod, MA 

  Not only should you go with Brady, you’ve gotta hope he’s not gone before he gets to you at 5.  Let’s do it mathematically:  4,000 yards, 40 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 4 lost fumbles = 404 points.  1,400 yards, 12 touchdowns, 2 lost fumbles, 70 receptions = 273 points.

Now, obviously there is a position discrepancy, but if you have the opportunity to get a player who will score over 400 points (He’ll probably be the only player in the NFL that does that in this league), you’ve gotta take that.  Six points a touchdown pass, for a guy who very likely will throw more than 35 touchdowns this year, is absolutely the deciding factor.  Although I love Frank Gore in PPR leagues, you can’t get a better pick in the first round than where you are.  Not only will you pick up Brady, you’ll have a good chance of picking up a Reggie Bush, Willis McGahee or Laurence Maroney type when it comes back to you.  And for PPR, I’d say Reggie Bush is a phenomenal consolation prize.

Good luck, and happy drafting!

Come along with me as we go through my second fantasy draft this year. This league has 8 teams, with the following roster positions on each team: QB, QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, W/T, W/T, W/R, K, DEF, D, D, D, DB, DB, DL, DL.

The last seven positions are independent defensive players (IDPs). These are a staple of leagues in which I am the commissioner. The other trademark of a Bobby-managed league is PPR, or point-per-reception. These two features add different dynamics to the fantasy leagues, and involves more thinking, research, and preparation. Usually, in my Sigma Tau Gamma league (I was in this fraternity in college, and we still keep up fantasy leagues), there are 12-14 teams. However, baseball is the more popular game, and only the 8 most competitive fantasy managers signed up for this league. That is the reason I added two extra positions at QB and W/T. Another quarterback and another wide receiver would force people to look deeper into the positions to find their last roster spots, and bench players.

Adding a second quarterback to a league of 8 teams means that on your teams bye week, you have to reach into a crop of players like Aaron Rodgers, Jon Kitna and Jason Campbell as opposed to Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard and Marc Bulger. As you can see, the talent level drops off considerably at that point. So now you know the set up, let’s get on to the madness…

Round 1

The 1st round went as planned, with no surprises at all. This, of course, was even more foreseeable in an 8 team league. After LDT (You’ll never hear me call Ladainian Tomlinson LT, there already was an LT, and he was the greatest linebacker of all time. More on nicknames much later…), Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai, Randy Moss and Marion Barber flew off the board, I had the opportunity to draft twice in a row. Pick 8 was no question. I queued Tom Brady, happy to get the best QB in the world with the last pick in the first round. Another great aspect of picking last, is you can let your time go down to nothing twice to make one decision. For instance, I knew I was taking Brady, so I had three minutes to choose a running back between Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Marshawn Lynch, LJ and Ryan Grant. I decided Gore was the safest choice, and reports are that he’s leaner and meaner this year at camp. Besides this, he is probably the best receiving back in this group, and this being a PPR league, that’s kind of important.

Round 2

Those backs all went immediately in the same order listed right after my selection of Gore. This, of course, means I would have been totally screwed had I gone with TO or Reggie Wayne at that spot. Are we learning yet? Regardless of the fact that TO and Wayne may very well score more points than Gore, the ridiculous early run on running backs that happens every year sometimes warrants going for a tailback when a higher-scoring player is available to you. After Grant, Peyton Manning, TO, and Romo rounded out round 2.

Round 3

The guy with the third pick, one of my dearest friends, Craig, selected Reggie Wayne. This was a great move, as he ended up with the best running back, one of the absolute best receivers, and the third-ranked quarterback. This was very smart, despite the fact I wouldn’t allow Tony Romo on my team unless I had no other choice. He lucked out with LDT, then filled the other most important positions with his back-to-back picks. Besides my personal dislike for Tony Romo, he couldn’t have played this much better. I may have to look out for him later. Round 3 continued with Andre Johnson (who I will certainly try to trade for later this week), Braylon Edwards, MJD, Laurence Maroney, Brandon Jacobs, Willis McGahee, and my crazed outburst of joy when T.J. Houshmandzadeh slipped to me with the last pick of the third round of a PPR league. I queued him instantly and began the tough job of searching for my next guy. Housh falling to me in a PPR league when I had a QB and RB already could only have been divine intervention. This was the fantasy football equivalent of the best looking girl in school asking you to prom because all the guys she wanted to go with had dates already. I know, it never happens, and neither should this! Now, I had to search for the best available player, period. I had a crop of WR’s including Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Torry Holt and Wes Welker, with Jamal Lewis, Michael Turner, Reggie Bush, Willie Parker and Darren McFadden. Drew Brees was also tempting here, but I knew I could wait a bit and still grab a high quality quarterback.

.
Round 4

Reggie Bush. Definitely. Three things helped me come to the Bush decision:

1. It was down to Wes Welker and him, and as much as I would love to have the co-reception leaders from last year, quality running backs were simply going too fast. It truly hurt me to leave Welker and Colston there, as I had them on my team last year, and they helped me to win the Super Bowl of both my leagues. Yes, we had been through a lot together. And, I swear I could almost hear Wes whimper a little as I placed the cursor over Reggie’s name.
2. Antonio Gates is considerably closer to the pack now than he has been in recent years. It was simply too early for a tight end.
3. Reggie Bush caught 73 passes last season despite missing the final four games due to injury. Had he had a great last few games, he could have won the reception title as a running back; no easy feat.

After four rounds, I’m sitting pretty with Tom Brady, Frank Gore, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Reggie Bush, and I couldn’t be happier.

Sure enough, after I voted Reggie, the receiver run began. In what seemed like a matter of seconds, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Torry Holt, Wes Welker and Plaxico Burress went, with Jamal Lewis in the mix somewhere. My next turn would have to result in at least one more receiver if I was going to get a halfway decent one.

Round 5

Luckily, the run slowed a tiny bit with the picks of Drew Brees, Michael Turner, Willie Parker and Darren McFadden, but Brandon Marshall, Chad Johnson (5th round? What has happened to his draft value?), and Anquan Boldin each went too. The only mistakes I saw in this round were Michael Turner and Willie Parker, who I predict will be in fantasy-useless platoons by the fourth exhibition game. Mistakes, but not enough to unleash the vicious insults I was sitting on. I couldn’t wait for someone to really screw up something big. This is what fantasy drafts are all about. I went with Carson Palmer to complete my quarterback tandem. I decided I’d rather have two 30 touchdown QB’s than select two wide receivers back to back here.

Round 6

This is where I encountered an intriguing decision. Just a week or two before this draft, I read an article on Yahoo! sports titled Santonio Holmes vs. Greg Jennings. Interestingly, this was the decision I faced after taking Palmer. Seriously, how often does this happen? I honestly think I like Greg Jennings better, but I went with the better quarterback instead. Santonio Holmes had a very good season last year, and very comparable to Jennings. GJ has incredible talent and speed, but will likely have to compete with Donald Driver, James Jones and an assortment of above-average tight ends (two, actually), for catches. Holmes has Hines Ward and Heath Miller, and he’s emerging as the clear favorite for his 32 touchdown-tossing leading man, Ben Roethlisberger. That, to me, pushes him over the top. As an added bonus, everyone in my draft room missed the opportunity to bash me for drafting the one NFL player who recently had naked pictures of him escape to the internet. That could have been embarrassing. This was another case of abandoning one of the key components of my 2007 title run. But, as the Patriots have proved over the better part of the last decade, success sometimes means having to say a cold goodbye. Also, I simply don’t trust Aaron Rodgers yet. Without warning, the tight end rush started. Gates, Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow and Tony Gonzalez all going along with Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Anderson, Earnest Graham, Roy Williams, Roddy White and Marvin Harrison going in rounds 6 & 7 before I chose the last pick of round 7.

Round 7

DeAngelo Williams - Boy do I have man-love for this guy. After his impressive debut in an exhibition game, people suddenly started taking notice nation-wide that maybe Jonathan Stewart can’t walk onto this team and take the starting running back job as a rookie. Maybe the Panthers’ first round pick of two years ago has some talent and deserves a shot to start now that DeShaun Foster is gone. Maybe?

Round 8

With two empty W/T slots remaining and another ex-member of my championship team (Dwayne Bowe) going just before DeAngelo, I had to choose another receiver, and Lee Evans looked very tempting in this spot. He was supposed to explode last year with J.P. Losman, who turned out to be a joke at QB. Maybe with Trent Edwards, the predictions will simply be a year too early. Here’s hoping.

The rest of the round continued with a couple more tight ends, Dallas Clark and Chris Cooley, wideouts Hines Ward, Laveranues Coles and Chris Chambers, along with Thomas Jones and Donovan McNabb. I was absolutely shocked at how intelligently this draft was progressing. I was definitely right about the competitiveness about this 8 person league.

Round 9

This is where most teams grabbed their second quarterback. After Heath Miller went first, Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard, Marc Bulger and Jay Cutler all went, along with someone named Jerricho and the first white wide receiver to play for the Eagles since Vince Papali. I chose to jump on a tight end here before the run went too far without me, and I scooped up Jeremy Shockey. I’ve never chosen him in any draft in any year before, but I’ve got a good feeling about him this season. He’s in a pass-happy offense with a great quarterback who longs for a big, fat target in goal-line situations. Plus I want him on my team so I can immediately be put on notice when his hillbilly lifestyle conflicting with a city nearly entirely populated by black Americans. I can’t wait!

Round 10

If tight ends hadn’t been selling like hotcakes (whatever that means), I would have gone with the best defensive lineman and defensive back with my consecutive picks, but instead, i was forced to play a hand of one tight end and one Patrick Willis: The #1 name in tackling. I still had a W/T spot open, but I knew I could grab someone valuable down the line that no one would have thought of until they caught a touchdown in week 1. The only problem with this pick, who will definitely bring me more points than any third-rate wide receiver going at this point, is that it caused an avalanche of defensive team picks I simply didn’t see coming. After Willis, round 10 went Minnesota (what?), San Diego, Jake Delhomme, Matt Schaub, D.J. Williams, Donald Driver, New England.

Round 11

Edgerrin James, Chicago, Jon Beason, New York Giants (whoops), Pittsburgh, Eli Manning, Brett Favre. Now that’s a defensive team run. If you’re keeping score (or not), that’s 6 defensive teams in between my 10th and 11th picks of the draft. I had to pick Dallas here, right? I mean they’ve added depth all around, and a future hall of famer at middle linebacker, that’s worth something, right? And a good defense is always aided by a good offense, which you can’t argue against Dallas having. Yes, I am getting defensive, and I don’t care. I was forced into this. At the very least, by choosing a defensive team here, and another defensive player (the best defensive back is still available if you haven’t noticed), I can guarantee that the next couple of rounds will be filled with defensive players, and the best two remaining defensive teams. This means I get to make a good choice at W/T with my next pick. Now I’m manipulating the draft with my consecutive picks. Now I’m having fun.

Round 12

Antonio Cromartie. Yeah, that’ll work. The best defensive back in the game to add to my best tackling linebacker in the game. This’ll throw people into a fit, I’m sure of it. I just stoked the fire of panic in my opponents, and I couldn’t be happier. I started looking at receivers to fill my last spot, when the draft suddenly took an unintentionally hilarious turn for the worse. The following is the exact order of picks in round 12, and I’m not even close to kidding:

1. Antonio Cromartie (Thank you, thank you very much…)
2. Nick Folk (Whoops…)
3. Shayne Graham (Oh man, double whoops…)
4. Adam Vinatieri (…)
5. Nate Kaeding (What… what is going on?!)
6. Ernie Sims (Back on track…)
7. Stephen Gostkowski (WHAT THE $*@&!?!?!?)
8. Charles Woodson

I was so angry. I had waited 11 rounds to hurl the first insults at the knucklehead who drafted a kicker too early, and it inexplicably happened with five teams at once. There is no excuse, explanation or precedent for such an occurence. Not only were there plenty of IDPs left who would score way, way more points than a kicker, there were plenty of potentially high-scoring receivers and running backs for bench spots or final active roster spots! This bothered me so much, until these five completely useless picks allowed me to steal the guys in 13 & 14.

Round 13

Finally, people started grabbing their defensive players en masse. Asante Samuel, Will Blackmon (This is why you pre-rank players if you don’t plan on showing up for the draft), Bernard Berrian, Jared Allen, Mike Vrabel, Willie Andrews (Take what I just said about showing up and pre-ranking, except this time, shout it out loud when you read it), Travis Williams (This pick is the equivalent of receiving a UPS’ed ziplock bag of dog dung for no reason. Something tells me this guy won’t be happy when he sees I picked DeMeco Ryans after he selected the 5th string linebacker and special teams nobody from the Atlanta Falcons). My DeMeco Ryans pick was immediately followed by…

Round 14

Brian Urlacher. God bless those place-kicking loving idiots of the fantasy universe, they just bought my ticket to the playoffs. Of course, after these picks, they IDP onslaught continued, this time with effective players going off the board such as Jason Taylor, London Fletcher, Terrence McGee, E.J. Henderson, Lofa Tatupu and Ed Reed all went, then the best pick of the draft. And by best, of course, I mean most unintentionally hilarious pick of all time.

Round 15; Pick 4; 116th overall: Adam Jones. Drafted in 2005, suspended since 2006. He has never made more than 51 total tackles or intercepted more than 4 passes. This is seriously the strangest part of the Adam Jones saga. Poeple seem to have him confused wtih a cornerback who actually made a difference in the games he played in. His career stats are reflective of an athletic corner who was occasionally in the right place in the right time. What upsets me so much abou tthis is not that someone took him too early in a fantasy draft, but that a great cornerback nickname was wasted on a painfully average D-back who hasn’t played since Roger Goodell first took over as commissioner.

Wouldn’t Ed Reed be a much better fit for this nickname? Or Rashean “Pacman” Mathis? Terrence “Pacman” McGee? Asante “Pacman” Samuel? Someone who actually gobbled up passes to make the nickname make sense? I can’t possibly be the only one who is upset about this.

Round 15

I ended round 15 with the only offensive player chosen in that round: Chris Henry. I loved this pick because he’s extremely talented, and if he truly has changed his ways, he’ll definitely score a touchdown in every game he’s not suspended for. I’ll spare you the rest of the IDPs chosen, so here is how my final roster ended up looking:

QB - Tom Brady (1)

QB - Carson Palmer (5)

RB - Frank Gore (2)

RB - Reggie Bush (4)

WR - T.J. Houshmandzadeh (3)

WR - Santonio Holmes (6)

TE - Jeremy Shockey (9)

W/T - Lee Evans (8)

W/T - Chris Henry (15)

W/R - DeAngelo Williams (7)

K - Mason Crosby (24)

DEF - Dallas (11)

D - Troy Polamalu (19)
D - Brian Urlacher (14)
D - Will Witherspoon (16)
DL - Patrick Willis (10)

DL - DeMeco Ryans (13)

DB - Antonio Cromartie (12)

DB - Oshiomogho Atogwe (17)

BN - Julius Jones (18), James Jones (20), Joey Galloway (21), Chris Johnson (22), James Hardy (23), Deuce McAllister (25)

A few final thoughts on this draft:

• I feel like I absolutely, positively, grand larceny, 20 years to life stole Julius Jones in this draft. A very talented, 27-year-old running back who is going to shoulder the majority of the workload in Seattle in the 18th round? Yes, please. Behind the strength of a very good offensive line led by Walter Jones, who at 34, could still keep an SUV out of its own driveway, Jones is bound for very goodness this season (I’m tempted to say greatness, but he’ll probably share some time with Maurice Morris before proving he’s far better suited to be a starter). In the 18th round, when other people were taking all IDPs and the top 6 ranked kickers were already gone (read that again… don’t laugh… I dare you to try it… seriously), to get a starting running back on a playoff-bound team in a bad division, I’ll take that, please. Medium-well. No onions.
• Because of simply showing up to the draft and waiting until the second-to-last round to draft a kicker, and having a list of the highest-scoring IDPs in this particular league, I ended up with a defensive team full of absolute studs. Under normal circumstances, there is no reason Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans, and Antonio Cromartie should ever end up on the same team. With a healthy Polamalu, Will Witherspoon and Brian Urlacher, it will take an act of God, or a shared bye week oversight by me for me to lose an advantage in defensive points. I’m not tooting my own horn, seriously. Take a look. Would you replace anyone on that defensive roster with anyone? It was as if I drafted mine, then everyone else took what was left. How many times do I have to tell you people to know the league you’re drafting in BEFORE you draft? I can’t wait to reject the first trade offer for Patrick Willis involving someone’s backup tight end and backup defensive team. I really can’t wait.
• A tip to those who haven’t drafted yet - Look at my 8th and 24th round picks. These may be far more important than you know.
• Lee Evans: Was supposed to have a pro-bowl caliber season last year, and disappointed. Very talented, and now with Trent Edwards throwing to him far more often that J.P. Losman ever did (and more accurately), he should come through. However, since I took what I consider a as a risk with this pick, I also picked Chris Henry for an active spot, as well as James Jones, Joey Galloway and James Hardy for bench spots in case Evans doesn’t pan out. The very simple lesson here is to back up your gambles! Don’t draft Aaron Rodgers for your bye week if you have Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer for your QB spots. Worry about that when the bye week actually rolls around. You only have so many bench spots and they could mean the difference between a championship and a bronze medal.
• Mason Crosby: I can’t explain how important it is not to draft a kicker until the second-to-last round. It makes me literally vomit into my mouth when people take one before every position is filled with at least one backup at running back and wide receiver. Kicking is so completely arbitrary that is literally insane to try and get a “good” one. Past “top kickers” have included Robbie Gould and Neil Rackers. Think anyone saw those coming? Your best bet (And this is why I still include kickers - there is a way to draft kicking effectively) is to try and get someone with a strong leg (note: Adam Vinatieri, while very accurate, does not have a strong leg), on a team with no serious, bruising goal line threat. The more they get rejected in goal line situations, the more these red zone drives will result in field goals. My guy Mason has a heck of a leg, one of the best in the league, with a great offense, but Ryan Grant to me is not a “I’m walking right over your defensive line whether you like it or not” kind of guy. He’s great, but Aaron Rodgers as a rookie and Grant as a second-year back will probably result in quite a few field goals, in addition to Crosby’s already great leg.
• Two more things: People are taking the Giants’ defense too early, and Tom Brady too late. Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the world, and he’s got a great offensive line in front of him. The only receiver he lost was Donte Stallworth, and he didn’t throw to him much anway. He still has the best receiver in the game in Moss, the Million-catch Man in Wes Welker, and Chad Jackson, who most people don’t know, but was the second-best receiving prospect in the 2006 draft after Santonio Holmes. Hopefully with a chance this season, he will break out as well. As for New York’s defense: They lose more than half of their team! And, oh, yeah… Osi Umenyiora is now out for the year. So, we can go ahead and stop drafting them amongst the top defenses in the game, right? Right. Thanks, Bobby. You’re welcome.

Well, it’s been fun everyone. I hope you learned a lot, and had some fun. I certainly did, and I’m psyched to find out who I’m going to play in this year’s Super Bowl. Happy Drafting!

Every year, hundreds and hundreds of thousands of fantasy drafts take place, and every year, people are disappointed within just a few weeks with the players they invested all their hopes into. But, not to worry. This year, I will help you out before you pull your hair out wondering why someone was projected to get 22 fantasy points this week and they’re sitting at -2 with 3:34 left to go in the 4th quarter. Sportsomedy proudly presents the 2008 Fantasy Duds: Who you should fight the urge to reach for, no matter how strong that urge may be. In the words of the Joker: “Now heeere… weee… go!”

1. Team Defenses… 31 of them…
For the last few years, Chicago has been a phenomenal asset in the fantasy universe, racking up turnovers and touchdowns on a frighteningly consistent basis. Now, with players leaving, aging and/or getting arrested for driving drunk or having WAY too many guns, they are not the same team they once were. Player departures and aging stars have also hit other once-formidable defenses in Denver, Pittsburgh, New England, Baltimore and New York (NFC) pretty hard. This season, besides San Diego, which has sack (Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips) and interception (Antonio Cromartie) specialists at the absolute top of their class, no team looks poised to score more fantasy points than any team’s #2 receiver.

Also, when did Minnesota become the highest-ranked defense in most fantasy formats? The Vikings had the NFL’s worst passing defense last season, failed to add an above-average defensive back after 2007, and now are ranked number 1? On what planet does that make sense? Maybe some people think adding an elite pass rusher makes them the best defense in the league, but I’ll take Derrick Mason (especially in PPR leagues), Jabar Gaffney or DeAngelo Williams at the same spot, waiting another couple of rounds for Pittsburgh, New England or Dallas.

2. Darren McFadden, RB - Oakland Raiders

McFadden may be uniquely talented, and destined for the best pro career of anyone selected in the 2008 draft. However, 1st year running backs that produce at a high level are very few and far between. Besides the pressure and expectations of a team whose stadium patrons resemble the Terminator after having half his fake skin blown off his face, and being a high-1st round pick, Oakland has no real reason to rush McFadden into action. They still have Justin Fargas, who averaged 97 yards per start last year, and can easily keep the seat warm until Darren is ready to step in.

While McFadden might still win rookie of the year and put up decent numbers this season, he will certainly be platooning for at least a good portion of the season, and shouldn’t go as high as he has been so far.

3. Calvin Johnson, WR - Detroit Lions

An insanely talented and physically gifted (physically spoiled might be more appropriate) receiver, he should be climbing the ranks of the elite receivers in the game this season. Unfortunately for him, there is a guy named Jon Kitna still attempting to pass the ball up in the Motor City. Meaning, much to the chagrin of his keeper-league owners, the defensive backs guarding him may get just as many catches as he will this year.

Sure, he will submit one or two performances here or there that will make the entire league jealous of the manager that picked him, but is it worth using a third round pick on someone that for at least a few games, will only catch four passes for 20 yards due to his quarterback accidentally throwing 4 touchdowns the other way? If you don’t believe me, ask anyone that has drafted Roy Williams recently. On any other team, Williams would be a top 3 wide receiver pick. On the Lions? He’ll be buried somewhere between Greg Jennings and Adam Vinatieri. Just thinking about the waste of receiving talent on this team makes my blood pressure shoot through the roof. If the Lions’ front office is not in a race with Minnesota to pull of a three-team deal for Brett Favre right now, they’re not doing their jobs.

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4. Steve Smith, WR - Carolina Panthers

This one pains me to write. It really does. Currently the most talented player in the NFL with absolutely no stats to back it up. Thanks to an injury and ineptitude-fueled rotating door of quarterbacks including Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore, David Carr and 63-year-old Vinny Testaverde, Smith has not scored more than one touchdown in a single game since the second game of 2007. In what should be the prime of his career, he accumulated 6 feet over 1,000 yards last season with only 7 scores, three of which came in week 2. In 2006? Just 100 more yards and one more touchdown. For a guy that has the potential to be putting up 1,400/12 seasons consistently, this is unacceptable.

2008 was looking up for Carolina before the draft, however, when they were sitting at #13 with only one quarterback off the board. Joe Flacco and Chad Henne both sat, waiting to change the fortunes of a lucky team. Then, Roger Goodell came out to announce that the Carolina Panthers wanted to take a running back in the first round for the second time in three years. Awesome. Good luck with that.

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5. Santana Moss, WR - Washington Redskins

Another wideout severely underperforming for his talent level. If you switched Steve Smith with Santana Moss today, and didn’t tell anyone, would anyone know the difference? Same age, size, speed, and strength, and same baffling level of underachievement. Besides Smith sporadically turning to the sideline camera and telling his fans to watch him on NFL Network, I’m not sure their own family members would even recognize the difference. After scoring 9 touchdowns with over 1,400 yards in 2005 (Smith had over 1,500 yards and 12 TDs in 2005 before falling off the face of the earth), Moss totaled 9 in both ‘06 and ‘07. These guys are both just 29! What is going on!? It can’t be all in the quarterback play, it can’t! They’re too good for this!

You may notice I’m a little upset about these guys being so disappointing. To sum up my feelings best, here is a quick story. In the 6th round of the 2006 draft with my college buds, I drafted Santana Moss in the same round some clown reached way too high so he could get the “best kicker.” I got complimented all around the draft chat room, which is incredibly unusual, as that room is generally reserved for insults and profanities. Like, for instance, the ones directed at the guy who picked Adam Vinatieri in that same round.

Then, Santana Moss had a terrible season completely devoid of explanation. If I hadn’t won the league anyway, I might be even more upset at this guy. If someone doesn’t introduce him to Jason Campbell this year, I am just going to lose it.

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6. Tony Romo, QB - Dallas Cowboys

Great season last year, you say? Still young? Gaining experience? I beg to differ. Terry Glenn, a solid number 2 receiver despite having his gender confused by Bill Parcells, is no longer with the team. Patrick Crayton has been exposed as a #3 receiver at best. The team has a good receiving tight end in Jason Witten, Terrell Owens and that’s it. No #2, and a cocky #3 marked for destruction by most free safeties in the league.

Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t be upset if I ended up with Romo at QB due to grabbing quality players at other spots, but this season, in all honesty, I’d rank him under Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Derek Anderson, Carson Palmer and Marc Bulger. And I’m not even joking.

7. Adrian Peterson, RB - Minnesota Vikings

Settle down. Honestly, hold on a minute. Seriously! Order in the court! I’m not going to explain myself until you stop yelling at me!

Alright, now that that’s settled… On with my explanation. I don’t mean don’t draft him. I don’t even mean don’t draft him early. I simply mean don’t reach for him. See, most expert draft boards have him ranked at #2 right behind Ladainian, King of the Fantasy Studs. This is exactly where my friend Adrian belongs. My only point? Don’t mess with success. If you end up with the first pick overall, take the single-season touchdown record holder, and be happy about it. If you get second pick, and the guy or girl in front of you can’t resist the temptation to take AP first, be sure to thank him or her for taking a guy with a career season played to serious knee injury ratio of 1:1. I’m going to stop writing about this now before the state of Minnesota declares war on my website.

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8. Willie Parker, RB - Pittsburgh Steelers

I know it’s tempting to draft Pittsburgh’s feature running back, considering the recent history of great rushing success the team has had. However, last season, Parker rushed for over 1,300 yards and only two scores. Two! That’s one touchdown every 650 rushing yards! Without Jerome Bettis! I can’t stop screaming!

Adding to his strife, the Steelers used their first round pick this year on big, bruising tailback Rashard Mendenhall. Don’t be surprised to see him taking red zone carries away from Fast Willie to get his feet wet in the NFL. This platoon thing that so many teams are doing nowadays doesn’t seem to help anyone’s fantasy fortunes, does it?

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9. Marvin Harrison, WR - Indianapolis Colts

This seems almost like fantasy blasphemy, but I’m going to go ahead anyway. Marvin is getting older. The Colts have shifted to a Reggie Wayne-centered passing attack, and it’s his show now. 2008 seems destined to end too early for Harrison, either by injury, or by this situation involving his mysterious non-involvement with a shooting by his gun (I hate when my handguns go on rampages on their own free will). Take Marvin in your draft, but not before Santonio Holmes, Greg Jennings, Roddy White or Dwayne Bowe at similar average draft positions.

10. Donovan McNabb, QB - Philadelphia Eagles

He’s going to get injured! Come on, really? We don’t understand this by now? Currently ranked above high-quality QB’s such as Matt Schaub, Matt Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger and Jay Cutler, is it worth taking the gamble? At times, he looks absolutely en route to Canton. But, too often, he is on the sideline in a cast, more visible in Campbell’s Chunky Soup commercials than on a football field.

Since 2005, he has missed over a season’s worth of football games. A full season. Including a bye week. That is not the type of track record one needs to lead their fantasy campaign. Ideally, you could have him as a second stringer, ready to plug in, in case he blows up. But, in my humble opinion, drafting early is about sure things, then taking chances later on. Until someone breaks my current two-year championship streak, I’ll stick to this strategy. Did I mention it was a humble opinion?