(NFL - 12 = x) Part III…

Obviously, I always consider my fantasy football leagues the best in existence. I use the point-per-reception format, award one points per 10 yards rushing and receiving, and six points per touchdown. I believe this format truly rewards the highest-performing players in the NFL. Some people don’t believe in PPR, but I think it’s the only way to reward go-to guys in the league. If someone catches 12 passes in a game for 100 yards, isn’t he more valuable to his team than a guy (say, Bernard Berrian for example) who catches two passes for 100 yards? All those first downs and progressive yardage gains? Especially for running backs, these catches should be rewarded with one point a piece, in my opinion. That being said, here are the top 10 fantasy backs in my league this season (through week 13):

1. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears: 232 Fantasy Points (1012 Rushing Yards, 6 TD, 48 Receptions, 358 Receiving Yards, 4 TD)

2. Thomas Jones, New York Jets: 217 (1088, 11, 27, 161, 2)

3. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys: 215 (870, 7, 47, 366, 2)

4. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: 201 (1311, 9, 18, 94)

5. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: 200 (552, 11, 43, 415)

6. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers: 197 (955, 11, 18, 112, 2)

6. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins: 197 (1228, 7, 23, 187)

8. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons: 195 (1208, 13, 4, 11)

8. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans: 195 (904, 8, 34, 250, 1)

10. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers: 194 (926, 6, 39, 354, 1)

There’s your top-10 performing backs this season: 2 rookies, 4 first-year starters (Not including rookies: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner) and no LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai or Brian Westbrook.

At the very least, Westbrook is #11 with 193 fantasy points, and LDT is just behind him with 192. However, Steven Jackson ranks 27th with 130 points, and Joseph Addai (granted because of injuries) is ranked 35th overall. Addai, with 113 points is behind even his teammate Dominic Rhodes.

Obviously, there is much more to a running back than stats. A huge part of a back’s game which there is no way to track is pass blocking. There are some running backs in the league who take this incredibly seriously, such as LDT, MJD and Kevin Faulk. Then there are some, like Shaun Alexander before people realized he was a fraud, who would rather get a head start getting in line for Gatorade on 3rd down than trying to take on a linebacker coming free off the edge or flare out for an outlet pass.

Because of the many, many factors and arguments that could be involved in this discussion, I simplified this as much as possible by coming up with the three running backs I feel are the most complete players, and explanations as to why they’re there.
And heeere… Weee… Go!

3. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys:

A do-it-all guy.  “Marion the Barbarian” is a bruising back with the mindset of a hard-hitting free safety.  Never one for fancy running, there may be no player in the NFL (save for Brandon Jacobs) who elicits such fear in the hearts of would-be tacklers.

A part of his game, surprisingly outstanding because of his smash-mouth style, is his talents as a receiving threat out of the backfield.  His 47 catches are second only to Matt Forte, and he leads all running backs in receiving yards (Although to be fair, Reggie Bush had comfortable leads in both categories before injuring his knee).

Averaging just under 4 yards a carry and just under 8 yards per catch and never shying away from laying a devastating block or two, Marion Barber sits at #3 on my ultimate running back depth chart.

2.  LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers:

A down-season (From my calculation, mostly due to Philip Rivers learning how to throw downfield instead of having to throw to LDT 75 times per year) for LDT is still very good for the future Hall of Famer.  Sure, his stats aren’t what they were, and he’s another year older, and we all know running back 29 is normal guy 36, but this guy is still the class of NFL running backs.

Whether it be cutting up the field, bowling over safeties, flying over the offensive line for a touchdown, taking screen passes for scores or staying back to take on the toughest of pass rushers, there’s still no one who has done it as consistently as LaDainian Tomlinson for several years now.

1.  Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

The only one out of these three currently averaging over 4 yards per carry, Jones-Drew is beyond a doubt the most versatile running back in the NFL.  He’s a human highlight reel of bone-crushing blocks on linebackers twice his size (Anyone remember him pancaking Shawne Merriman coming in on a blitz last season?  Impossible to forget.  Whether helped or hindered by his short stature (”Pocket Hercules” stands an unimposing 5′7″ but packs 208 pounds into a body of solid muscle), he’s one of the best goalline and short-yardage backs in the game.

In addition to being able to power through defensive players, he possesses break-away speed that seems physically impossible for legs that don’t measure much longer than your common table lamp.  His 43 catches are just a few off the league lead, and averaging almost 10 yards per catch is something even quite a few wide receivers would be envious of.

As if that weren’t enough, his skills as a kick returner rival the best in the game.  Brushing off the sterotypical view of a kick returner (Lean, fast guys who can outrun scared deer but with no other specialized skills), the diminutive rising star cuts, dashes and flat-out runs over those that oppose him.  And when someone does get their arms around him, he’s one of the toughest guys to tackle possibly in the history of the sport.

Yes, it’s up for debate, and everyone has a different opinion.  And, yes, it was insanely difficult for me to keep Brian Westbrook off this list (I still may replace Barber with Westbrook as I type this).  But, if I were building a franchise and needed a stud running back, there is no one right now I would rather have than Maurice Jones-Drew.  The most dangerous back in the NFL.

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SAN DIEGO (-9 1/2) over Oakland
CHICAGO (-6 1/2) over Jacksonville
Minnesota (E) over DETROIT
Houston (+5 1/2) over GREEN BAY
TENNESSEE (-13 1/2) over Cleveland
Cincinnati (+13 1/2) over INDIANAPOLIS
Atlanta (+3) over NEW ORLEANS
Philadelphia (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS
BUFFALO (-1) over Miami
DENVER (-9) over Kansas City
SAN FRANCISCO (+4) over New York Jets
SEATTLE (+4 1/2) over New England
ARIZONA (-14) over St. Louis
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Dallas
BALTIMORE (-5) over Washington
CAROLINA (-3) over Baltimore

Last Week:
Me: 9-7
LVK: 5-11

Season:
Me: 80-89
LVK: 84-85

Yeah so it turns out my turkey hangover and friend Craig’s bachelor party prevented me from turning in my football picks on time. So, what I’m going to do is write my picks, why the majority of them were wrong, then bitch for a while as I tally up my girlfriend’s inevitable winning total wins.

On with the explanations… Home team in caps…

BUFFALO (-7) over San Francisco

No-brainer, right? A slightly less-than-mediocre west coast team going cross-country to play an AFC East team in a place that usually provides ridiculous wintertime home field advantage. Marshawn Lynch should have torn up that team in the cold and the Bills should have easily handled the 49ers. The result? a 10-3 San Francisco win for absolutely no reason. Yeah, I guess I should have seen that coming…

1-3

Baltimore (-7) over CINCINNATI

I stuck with my “Never pick Cincy under any circumstances this season while Marvin Lewis and Chad Ocho Cinco Johnson Wellington III still occupy the same zip code. Effective so far, especially against a defense as good as Baltimore’s.

2-3

CLEVELAND (+4 1/2) over Indianapolis

I had no idea what to make of this game, as a bad Browns team was starting to rally around their new quarterback, then lost him for the year, then started last year’s stud Derek Anderson, then lost him for the year. I’m not even sure who finished the game at quarterback for the Browns, but once again Indy was not able to unleash their offense against a questionable (and I use that term not only lightly, but as a compliment) defense. Against the spread Indy was close, but no cigar.

3-3

GREEN BAY (-3) over Carolina

I really thought I had this pick right when I made it. Green Bay’s defense was playing bend-but-don’t-break, opportunistic defense and very good offense and had home field in cold weather on their side against a mostly warm-weather team. Unfortunately, Carolina’s completely unpredictable season reared its ugly head against me once again.

3-4

Miami (E) over ST. LOUIS

This was what I thought an easy pick which turned out to be an extremely close game. But, the result should have been easy for everyone to see. Aside from the one good run St. Louis went on this season, they are an awful-yet-rebuilding-so-watch-out-for-them-inthenextfew-years team. But as for now? I’m pretty sure Miami’s incessant Wildcat offensive attack could confuse them enough to win this game in their Domepiece.

4-4

New Orleans (+3 1/2) over TAMPA BAY

I was really proud of this pick, as I saw that Reggie Bush was going to be back (even when he’s limited, he demands attention on the field), and Marques Colston is returning to full strength.  Despite Tampa Bay’s refusal to stop playing good defense besides not having a single big star on the starting team (lest you count Ronde Barber and Barrett Ruud), I had a feeling they would not be able to outscore the Saints to the tune of four or more points.  Even though they almost did, I’m taking credit for a win that came directly from my internal assessment of the matchup.  Sue me.

5-4

WASHINGTON (+3 1/2) over New York Giants

I know, I know, I really have to stop being bitter toward the Giants.  Eli Manning is really good, and their defense is very, very good despite losing many key players.  It is killing me this season, but I am going to have to admit they’re a great team, and they may just repeat this year.  For those of you that don’t know me well, I just banged my head against my coffee table 8 times.  For those of you that do, you know exactly what corner I banged it off of.

5-5

ATLANTA (+5) over San Diego

San Diego’s season this year makes me terrified of New England’s reported upcoming trip to London to play a regular season game next year.  If losing Brady this year wasn’t enough, now we’ll have to take the two-week ruining (at least) trip to England to play in front of a crowd that cheers the kickers louder than any other players because it’s the only fragment of the game that reminds them of soccer.  God, I hate this NFL international outreach program.

6-5

Kansas City (+3) over OAKLAND

Okay, Oakland’s not terrible, but would anyone in their right mind take them to cover as a favorite?  I mean, really?

7-5

NEW ENGLAND (-1) over Pittsburgh

This was a tough call, but I really did think New England would make this a “must-win” situation in their minds and pull this one out.  However, New England chose to have its worst game of the season this week, and proved me completely wrong.  I have no defense for this, and apparently New England chose not to have one this week either.  No, I’m not bitter.  I swear!  Well… Maybe a little.

7-6

Denver (+7 1/2) over NEW YORK JETS

I actually saw most of this game coming, to be perfectly honest.  I had a feeling Thomas Jones would run all over Denver’s undersized defense, but Denver’s passing game would ultimately outscore and prevail on Sunday.  It’s a lot easier to say now, but I saw this one coming alllll along…

8-6

Chicago (+3) over MINNESOTA

Call me crazy, but was I alone in thinking that what I believe to be the best defense in the NFL would be able to come up with a scheme to stop Minnesota’s running game, leaving it to Tavairis Jackson to beat them?  And then, in turn, intercept him at least six times, three of which for touchdowns?  How did this team put up 34 points!?  This had to have been like the New England game in which the team simply had its worst game of the season.  That’s the only  explanation I can think of.  Anyone else?  Minnesota can’t be that good, can they?

8-7

HOUSTON (-3) over Jacksonville

Jacksonville has been so severely underperforming this season it is hard for me to believe they will go into Houston on Monday Night Football and make a game out of this one.  Houston’s high-powered offense led by Matt Schaub (replaced nearly every game at some point by Sage Rosenfels), Andre Johnson and rookie standout Steve Slaton should prevent matchup problems throughout the game, and be able to hold the Jaguars’ offense, unable to get off the ground all season, to a minimum on the national stage.  And, look at that!  I even got the late picks in before Monday Night Football!

Coming Later This Week:  “The Best Running Back in the NFL”

I figured this week I would post these picks before the actual games were played, just so everyone knows I didn’t cheat when I go 3-for-3. Without further ado…

Tennessee (-11) at Detroit

I hope everyone is ready for this: My absolute insanity upset special of the year. Not only am I taking the points in this game, I am officially picking Detroit to win this game outright. If you’re laughing right now and calling me crazy, that’s fine. However, I will say you’re not very original. Before you navigate away from this page laughing to yourself, hear me out. I have a few sound (depending on how far you can stretch the word ’sound’) reasons for calling this…

1.) Kerry Collins is due. I mean, come on. Does anyone really expect this guy to flawlessly lead the NFL’s best team all season? Would it be that much of a stretch to think Kerry Collins could be lulled into a false sense of security against the league’s worst scoring defense, throw a couple of badly-timed picks, and blow this game? Not outside the realm of possibility, right?

2.) The Thanksgiving Day Factor. For a historically terrible team, a 20-18 record on Thanksgiving in the last 38 years is tough to overlook, right? I mean, any time a team that loses most of its games has a winning record under certain circumstances, attention must be paid. Whether or not it would appear possible on paper, players react with a different intensity and level of concentration when on the national stage. I’ve seen enough Monday Night Football and playoff games (especially in the last 2-3 years of the NFL) that have proved anything can happen, and this game is no exception.

3.) Pre-season Predictions. Before this season, many people expected about the same output from the Titans and Lions. Vince Young was still developing as an NFL quarterback, and therefore expectations were tempered. Tennessee was supposed to be little more than a very, very good defense. The Lions were supposedly going to be an excellent offensive team behind an emerging superstar in Calvin Johnson in his second season, along with Roy Williams (lost to a trade), Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey catching passes from Jon Kitna (lost to injury, but may be addition by subtraction). Along with an efficient running game with the young and extremely talented Kevin Smith, the Lions could catch some eyes this season.

Though the season has turned out dramatically different so far, there were reasons behind these predictions, and the personnel (minus the aforementioned players) remain the same. Monster games from Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith could even the playing field a bit from what the Lions lack in defensive prowess. And by lack in defensive prowess, I mean lack in being able to stop anyone from doing anything at any time.

4.) Home Field Advantage. On a short week (Thursday game after a Sunday game for both teams), the Lions get the benefit of spending the better part of two weeks at home. The Titans, on the other hand, must factor in travel time to their already abbreviated preparation schedule. On short rest, this could be a much bigger deal than it would seem at first glance.

So what does it all mean? Probably nothing. Tennessee’s running backs probably rush for 340 combined yards and most of the crowd will leave for dinner before halftime. But, until it happens that way, I’m putting a little bit of money on Detroit. If they’re going to take someone by surprise this season, the pieces are in place for a Thanksgiving Day Miracle.

Pick: Lions

Seattle (+12 1/2) at Dallas

I’m so glad the Seahawks got Bobby Engram back (Another fantasy casualty on my endless list this season) so that Matt Hasselbeck could all but completely ignore him on his way to leading Seattle to a 2-9 record. What in the world is the plan in Seattle? Ignore everything that has worked in the last few years and tank the season for draft picks? If so, mission accomplished. Good work, chumps. I have nothing more to say to you! Good day!!

(Note: The author of this column would like to apologize for the nasty tone taken for the duration of the Seahawks-Cowboys preview. He’s really taking this year’s fantasy football disaster to heart. If you have children, you may want to have them skip over the Saints preview and the “Reggie Bush’s MCL” rant that will surely accompany it. Thank you for your patience and understanding.)

Pick: Cowboys

Arizona (+3) at Philadelphia

Well, I am watching this Tennessee-Detroit game right now, and with the score 28-3 with time remaining in the second quarter, it appears I may have swung and missed on this one.  But, you know what?  I took a swing and struck out, which at least makes me better than Mark Bellhorn.  However, I seriously doubt that Mark Bellhorn is a football prognosticator now so I’m going to assume he couldn’t care less.

After last week’s awful loss to Baltimore in which Donovan McNabb was temporarily benched, I now can’t seem to trust Philadelphia to do anything right for the rest of the year.  With three straight weeks of winless football (Including a humiliating fight to a draw with Cincinnati), the Eagles are headed for the bottom of the NFC East, and no one on that team even seems to care. I’d love to see how, even with a very good defensive backfield, a coach who is unclear on the rules of the game will gameplan against the league’s best receiving tandem in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. With Tennessee upping the score to 35-3 while I was writing this, I see three blowouts occurring today, with the Titans, ‘Boys and Cards all lighting up opposing defenses on a magical Thanksgiving feast of offense.

I officially apologize for my attempt at a ridiculous upset pick, and I’ll never try something like that again.  I wish my favorite player of all time, Barry Sanders never retired.  Even though he’s  40 years old now, he still has more talent than most of this Lions squad combined.  He would definitely make this game more interesting.  But alas, I have to watch Daunte Culpepper throw interceptions on attempted halfback screens.  I picked this team to win today?  Unbelievable…

Pick: Cardinals

Before we get started with the week 12 picks, I need to get something off my chest:

Why isn’t anyone investigating last week’s San Diego-Pittsburgh game?

Week 11 contained one of the most profound moments in sports betting in the history of the National Football League. Pittsburgh’s 11-10 victory over the Chargers appears on paper to be a hard-fought, skin-of-the-teeth win, but it was so much more in the world of football, and gambling. And, almost undeniably, organized crime. Because to be perfectly honest, I can’t see another possible way that referee Scott Green could OVERTURN a play that resulted in a fumble and a Steelers’ touchdown that would have resulted in an 18-10 victory, instead of the 11-10 result.

Okay, so what’s your point?

The point is, this not-so-simple turn of events resulted in a swing of hundreds of thousands of dollars in Las Vegas’ direction because of the 4 point spread for this game, and the amount of money bet on Pittsburgh. With San Diego lobbing a bunch of terrible laterals trying to come up with a score in the closing seconds of the game, Troy Polamalu got his hands on one and ran it back for a touchdown, officially covering the spread for the Steel Curtain team. However, because it was in the final two minutes of the game, the play was reviewed by the officials. Because the play was ruled a touchdown on the field, the official had to find with certainty that one of these laterals was an illegal forward pass in order to rule the play dead and overturn the call. Mind you, the result would be the same either way: A Pittsburgh victory. So, no matter what the call, whether they got it right or wrong, the result is precisely the same for the players and teams. After looking at it for a short period of time, the official comes back to the field and OVERTURNS the play, with a mumbling, incoherent reasoning and absolutely no reference to which lateral was in fact the illegal forward pass.

Immediately following the game, Scott Green admitted the refs got the play wrong and the touchdown should have counted. Oh, well… right? We all make mistakes that cost gamblers thousands of dollars and make Vegas a guaranteed win for absolutely no reason at the end of a meaningless play that should have stayed but was inexplicably overturned. Happens almost every day.

If this happened in the NBA, there would be an absolute Class-5 hurricane firestorm of investigations, hearings, firings and inter-office fist fights occurring as we speak. Because it’s the NFL? Everyone makes mistakes. If I haven’t made myself clear enough: This was the sketchiest thing to happen in the NFL in my lifetime.

And now… On with the picks…

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Cincinnati (+10 1/2) at Pittsburgh

Yeah, it’s late. No, I don’t care, and I didn’t cheat. This one was easy.

Pick: Steelers

Houston (+3) at Cleveland

Cleveland is getting progressively better (finally) and the team seems to be rallying behind new starting man Brady Quinn. For this season? Still good for nothing. Unfortunately in the long run now they’ll be lucky to grab a 3rd round pick for Derek Anderson instead of the 1st they could have nabbed last season. Teams like this should secretly hire GMs from the Red Sox and/or Patriots to avoid these embarrassing and team-killing blunders in the future. Seriously, I wouldn’t even mind. I simply hate seeing teams squander great opportunities.
Pick: Browns

San Francisco (+10) at Dallas

Despite the loss of Felix Jones, Dallas is returning to full strength and absolutely needs to win this game. If the offense can pull it together and stop Frank Gore from running wild, they should be able to cover this spread with little hassle.
Pick: Cowboys

Tampa Bay (-8 1/2) at Detroit

Detroit. I’m just not sure if I even need to write any more than that anymore.

Pick: Buccaneers

New York Jets (+5 1/2) at Tennessee

The Titans are a great team. They’re defense is currently one of the top 3 in the NFL, and they’ve recently proved they can beat teams with more than just their multi-faceted running game. They will lose in the regular season, but not to this Jets team. Brett Favre will have to win this game on his own, as Thomas Jones will find no room to run from Albert Haynesworth & Co. And, against a solid secondary providing him few good opportunities, it will be an uphill battle both ways in the snow for him on Sunday. The X-Factor in this game is Dustin Keller. If DK can get open underneath enough, it may just open it up enough for the Jets’ homerun hitters (Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery). It’s a long shot, but it could happen. But… It won’t.

Pick: Titans

Buffalo (-3) at Kansas City

It’s recently come to my attention by owning him in numerous fantasy leagues that Lee Evans is becoming an afterthought in the Bills’ offense. What I would love to know is, since Lee Evans isn’t catching the passses for this team, than who exactly is? I’d love to know what player is taking catches away from the fastest and most talented player on their team, while the Bills have lost their last four games. I’d LOVE to know what the strategy is behind this. If I lose one more crucial fantasy player this season to injury, suspension or inexplicable disappearance, I’m just going to lose my mind.

Pick: Chiefs

Chicago (-8 1/2) at St. Louis

Originally, I had the Rams defending their home turf by a touchdown or less, but with Orton back for the Bears, Jackson out for the Rams, and the distinct possibility that the same Rams team that has been playing all season will indeed show up to play again on Sunday… Yeeeaaah…

Pick: Bears

New England (+1) at Miami

The talk around here in Patriots Country has been regarding the Patriots hopes of making the playoffs if they end up losing this game for whatever reason. I’ve heard words like “devastating” and “wildcard spot” at that prospect, and they haven’t exactly registered with me yet. How in the world did we operate before the division was a foregone conclusion long before the season was over? I simply can’t comprehend a world in which the Patriots don’t get to the playoffs easily, and advance to the next round by beating their opponent into oblivion. This pessimism in Patriot Nation is something I haven’t experienced since before Tom Brady took office in early 2001. It’s really heartbreaking! But, on the bright side, the Patriots will win this game, and I’m calling a two-touchdown win. Belichick will find a way to use the Wildcat formation to his advantage, and I see at least one defensive touchdown coming in this game. Just watch. You’ll see.

Pick: Patriots

Minnesota (+2 1/2) at Jacksonville

These are two teams that have deeply saddened me this season. I had high hopes for both of them, as the teams had great offseasons, either adding key players through the draft or through trading or free agent pickups, and both teams were good last year. However, their lack of a few key components has hurt them more than I ever could have imagined, with both teams in third place in their respective divisions and hovering around or just under .500. One would think this game would have presented one of the greatest match-ups of the year, with two premiere running backs going head-to-head, but whether they’re missing a quarterback, wide receivers, defensive backs or some other crucial part of their game, now it will simply be another boring game between two teams almost certain to miss the playoffs. I’m bored just writing about it.
Pick: Jaguars

Philadelphia (+1) at Baltimore

A friend of mine this week asked me my opinion on a betting sheet in which he had to pick the winners of every game from week 12. When I got to this game, I stopped. He had Philadelphia going into Baltimore and beating the Ravens, and I couldn’t help but ask him how he could have come to this conclusion. Now, if you know me and you know my writing, I hate Baltimore. I thought Brian Billick was an idiot (and I’m not so sure the Ravens ownership didn’t also think this), I have always thought Ray Lewis was overrated, their defense, while extremely talented, is the biggest group of trash-talking whiners in the entire game, and until they let Joe Flacco take the reigns, their quarterbacks were like watching someone crush their own foot in a Vice grip for no reason. That didn’t even make any sense. ANYWAY, I just couldn’t see any way in which Philly walks into that stadium, takes on that defense, outlasts them THROUGH the 4th quarter and wins this game. And, god forbid it goes into overtime, this Philadelphia team is simply not ready to go 60 minutes with a defense as good as this one.
Pick: Ravens

Oakland (+9 1/2) at Denver

The last time these two teams played each other, Denver won in a rout, 41-14. And that was without Brandon Marshall.
Pick: Broncos

Carolina (+1) at Atlanta

I’m almost glad someone emailed Steve Smith and Santana Moss the article I wrote in which I called both of them too washed up and inconsistent to be considered for high-round fantasy drafting, because it’s fun watching them be good receivers again. But aside from that, has any team in the NFL been as much fun to watch this year as the Atlanta Falcons led by B.C. star Matt Ryan? After watching their beloved dog-fighting secret compartment with weed water bottle-sneaking quarterback go down the tubes of the legal system, who better to lead them out of that kind of depression than a crazy-talented kid from the sports capital of the world with oodles of charisma and enough marketability to go around. It’s just a great story this season. But, they’re still losing to Carolina this week. Sorry.
Pick: Panthers

New York Giants (-3) at Arizona

This is an upset I’m not going to miss out on. Yes, I realize it’s not that much of an upset, but with Brandon Jacobs hurting and Plaxico Burress becoming less effective by the week for some unknown reason, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald & Co. should be able to simply outscore the Giants this week. In addition, I refuse to give up on my pre-season position that the Giants are overrated and their defense will not be that good this year. It could still happen!
Pick: Cardinals

Washington (-3) at Seattle

Washington is the only team above .500 in the NFL besides Denver whose net point total is in the red. What does this mean? I have no idea. Who am I going with? Not the team who has to travel across the country for this game. Why? I have no idea. In conclusion, no one cares about this game, so why should I?

Pick: Seahawks

Indianapolis (+3) at San Diego

I never know what to make of these two teams. They always play each other tough, and they always seem to play a game that is disntinctly not their own. Each team messes with the other’s heads so badly that it turns into a turnover-filled disaster that consistently ends up one of the more fun games to watch during the entire season. I’m picking the home team because that’s the only thing that’s for sure today.
Pick: Chargers

Green Bay (+2 1/2) at New Orleans

Green Bay started off the season with a terrible run defense and a great passing game. Now, toward the end of the season, they’ve seemed to even out a little bit on both sides of the ball, and their defense seems to come up with at least one tremendous play throughout the course of every game. With Reggie Bush still not a sure thing to play (If I win one playoff match this season it’ll be a friggin’ miracle), I wouldn’t put it past Green Bay going into New Orleans and winning this game and putting the clamps on this power New Orleans offense.
Pick: Packers

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Last Week:Me: 9-7
LVK: 9-7
Season:Me: 71-82
LVK: 79-72

Look, I’m putting some work into this (Best Player in the NFL - Tom Brady = x) equation, so I forgot to take any notes on who was playing each other today. Let’s fly through these…

Thursday’s game: I got it wrong… No comment…

Sunday:

Denver (+6) at Atlanta

Matt Ryan will get to continue his impressive (and increasingly unopposed) run at offensive rookie of the year bid against one of the league’s worst pass defenses.

Pick: Falcons

Philadelphia (-9) at Cincinnati

I have no idea what to make of either of these teams after 10 weeks in the NFL. Philly can’t finish off anyone in the 4th quarter, Cincy can’t figure out if they’re playing a preseason game or going to attempt a real season, and I wouldn’t put money on either of them to cover any kind of spread over a touchdown, especially when you’re the visiting team. No way, no how.

Pick: Bengals

Chicago (E) at Green Bay

This game is the most intriguing of the week to me. I can see a blowout either way, and I can absolutely see a close, defensive struggle in which this matchup comes down to Robbie Gould vs. Mason Crosby. I can also see choosing not to watch this game because Rex Grossman has turned it into a laugher with 4 interceptions in the first half.

Pick: Packers

Houston (+8) at Indianapolis

With Indianapolis on the downside of a long run near the top of the NFL (We may be talking about the coming-down of the Indianapolis dynasty right now if Drew Bledsoe never got almost killed against the Jets in ‘01), this Houston-Indianapolis rivalry may turn into one of the best in football. And, as any Red Sox or Yankees fan knows, you never pick one team to win in a landslide. The games will be long, exhausting, close and probably result in more than one fight.

Pick: Texans

New Orleans (-5 1/2) at Kansas City

This spread can’t be big enough for how bad New Orleans is going to make the Chiefs’ secondary look today. Even with Reggie Bush missing one more week, Marques Colston may break the single-game receiving mark against a Chiefs D allowing over 400 yards per contest (Good for dead last in the NFL).

Pick: Saints

Oakland (+10 1/2) at Miami

This is a game where anyone could win, anything could happen, and anyone could be the star of the game. And still, no one will care.

Pick: Raiders

Baltimore (+6 1/2) at New York Giants

I love Baltimore’s defense this season. However they’ve done it, they’ve managed to revitalize this aging defense into one of the NFL’s elite yet again. I see Brandon Jacobs being taken completely out of this game, and Eli Manning having to do it all himself against a ballhawking, experienced Ravens secondary. Even if the Giants pull this off, it’ll be a squeaker.

Pick: Ravens

Minnesota (+3 1/2) at Tampa Bay

Is it just me, or is Tampa Bay the most boring team to watch in the entire NFL? If anyone has any answer to this question, or a rebuttal or counter-point, I’d love to hear it. Someone explain to me why this team is doing decently and take a shot at convincing me they have any chance whatsoever to get out of the first round of the playoffs if they even make it there. Go for it, I dare you!

Pick: Vikings

Detroit (+14) at Carolina

Okay, I know Carolina has been playing well this season, and Detroit is terrible. But really, 14 points? This is a spread we’re used to seeing after New England or Indianapolis! Is Jake Delhomme, and Co. capable of covering two touchdowns against a team that used to have Barry Sanders?! …Yeah, actually they probably are.

Pick: Panthers

St. Louis (+6 1/2) at San Francisco

Fresh off one of the worst regular season games ever played last week against the Jets, the Rams are looking to rebound against a much more beatable 49ers team. They won’t.

Pick: 49ers

Arizona (-3) at Seattle

Bobby Engram moves back to his more comfortable spot in the slot this week, where he caught over 90 balls for over 1,000 yards last season, against Arizona. With Hasselbeck still out, however, it makes so little difference it’s not even worth talking about. I just felt like mentioning it since my auction league is suffering because of it. And Reggie Bush being out, AGAIN. And, has Tom Brady returned to practice yet? Derrick Mason is questionable??? What the hell is wrong with my auction team!?

Pick:  Cardinals

San Diego (+4 1/2) at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh will find a way to stop LD today at Heinz field, which puts the pressure on Philip Rivers. With snow showers and winds expected in Pittsburgh today at game time, my money’s on the D.

Pick: Steelers

Tennesse (-3) at Jacksonville

The Jaguars are in disarray, with the team decision to bench team captain Mike Peterson for insubordination. However, I see the Jaguars pulling together to fight hard against this flawed-but-perfect-so-far Titans team. Who am I kidding. The Titans won’t go undefeated, but they’re definitely beating this Jags team today.

Pick: Titans

Dallas (-1 1/2) at Washington

With Tony Romo back, with weapons like Roy Williams, TO, Jason Witten, Marion Barber and Felix Jones around him, they will be able to get back on the winning and loving it track this week in Washington. And, for the love of god, THROW THE BALL TO ROY! HE’S A CRAZY TALENT THAT WAS STUCK IN DETROIT FOR HIS WHOLE CAREER!! PLEASE LET US SEE WHAT HE CAN DO IN THE REAL NFL!!! PLEASE!!!!

Pick: Cowboys

Monday:

Cleveland (+5) at Buffalo

I really like Cleveland, and their players, and especially their coach, but Buffalo is going to kill them at home on Monday Night Football. Brady Quinn was the right move for this team, but the kid’s going to need some time. Let’s hope they can give it to him, and still get something for Derek Anderson.

Pick: Bills

Last Week:

Me: 3-11
LVK: 6-8
Season:

Me: 62-75
LVK: 70-65

Since there is a Thursday game this week, I’ll throw up my picks today, then probably write another column about the games on Sunday night. I missed out on the pool I run at work this week by a measly 5 picks. The worst part(s)? I lost to a woman, I lost by a lot, and I paid for TWO slips, so I had twice the odds!

I hope no one is taking these seriously…

On with the picks…

Denver (+3) at Cleveland

Brady Quinn will get his first start in front of his ultra-supportive home crowd tonight.  The Browns have gotten their offense going just well enough to add his charisma and talent to cover this spread.  Although the Broncos possess huge amounts of talent at left tackle, quarterback, cornerback and wide receiver, they seem fatally flawed in key areas (such as passing defense - 27th in the league).  Browns cover, and cover big.  Wait… That makes no sense.  Don’t listen to me, I’m certainly not.
Pick: Broncos

New Orleans (Pk) at Atlanta

There seem to be a ton of home teams this week that have very achievable spreads to cover.  Since none of my other tactics seem to work, no matter how much strategy or nonsense I put into my choosing them, I’m going to go ahead and choose mostly home teams this week.  If I lose, I’m blaming Katherine Harris.
Pick: Falcons

Carolina (-9) at Oakland

Over the past week, Oakland waived self-proclaimed “Greatest player in the history of organized sport” DeAngelo Hall because, statistically, he is the worst cornerback since I played for the Barnstable Silver Bullets at 11 years old.  With their great corner on the other side (for real, this guy really is great), Asiomughosomingham Oulotusofeld, Steve Smith will be all but neutralized.  However, whether or not Oakland has enough to stop the other threats on Carolina’s offense (Jeff King, Mushin Muhammad,
Pick:  Raiders

Tennessee (Pk) at Chicago

Tennssee has everything going against them in this game.  A Chicago defense that has found its “We’re going to knock your teeth out” mentality again, a rising media interest in their undefeated record, an opponent whose strength would theoretically neutralize their strength (Chicago’s run D against the Titans’ running game), and playing in a hostile, cold and windy Chicago home stadium.  I do love this Titans team (especially what Chris Johnson has done for my fantasy teams), but their first loss will come in week 10.

Pick:  Bears

Baltimore (+1 1/2) at Houston

In my fantasy auction league (recently renamed “Hurricane Katrina” after injuries to Tom Brady, Reggie Bush, Matt Hasselbeck [we have Bobby Engram], Rashard Mendenhall and Kolby Smith), Steve Slaton is now our only viable running back, and after struggling against a frustratingly formidable Minnesota rush defense last week, must try to find some sort of success against an equally tough Baltimore run D.  We plan to catch breaks in this league at some point, we really do.  I see them coming at around week 12.  I need anti-psychotic medication immediately.
Pick:  Houston

Jacksonville (-6 1/2) at Detroit

Despite Detroit’s valiant cover last week, I still refuse to pick them against a decent team, even though they’re home.  I mean, they lost Roy Williams!  They don’t have a running back!  This has got to be a blowout, right?  By the way, did MJD slip into a coma at some point this season?  I’ve heard less about Maurice Jones Drew since fantasy drafts ended than I have about Reverend Jeremiah Wright.  And, that just makes me sad.
Pick:  Jaguars

Seattle (+9) at Miami

My useless, ridiculous, based-on-nothing prediction for the week:  Seneca Wallace will finally be introduced to Bobby Engram, who caught over 90 passes for over 1,000 yards last season, and will be able to maintain some sort of offensive drive against Miami.  Then, they’ll lose by 8.  Yes, that sounds good.
Pick:  Seahawks

Green Bay (+2) at Minnesota

After losing a heartbreaker against Tennessee last week, something gives me the feeling this talented young team will be angry and aggressive against a Minnesota defense still vulnerable against the pass.  If Green Bay can minimize Adrian Peterson’s impact on this game, they may even have this wrapped up by halftime.  Sportsomedy Player Prediction:  Greg Jennings:  6 catches, 138 yards, 2 TDs.
Pick:  Packers

Buffalo (+4) at New England

Anyone willing to bet against a Bill Belichick coached, fresh-off-a-loss, angry New England team playing a must-win division game at home against Buffalo this week?  Yeah, me either.
Pick:  Patriots

St. Louis (+8) at New York Jets

Steven Jackson will be inactive for the game on Sunday.  So will the Rams’ chances of competing int his game.
Pick:  Jets

New York Giants (+3) at Philadelphia

Besides watching the Patriots, this may be the game I’m most interested in come Sunday.  The Giants, after suffering serious injuries and losses to their defense before the season even started, have been playing over their heads for the majority of the season.  And, although the Eagles’ defense has allowed more than a few points, they are very capable of destroying a team’s morale with sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles and top-notch trash talk.  I see the
Pick:  Eagles

Indianapolis (Pk) at Pittsburgh

Something about Indianapolis playing outside at Hines Field in cold weather against a rejuvenated Steelers team which just got one of its best players back in Willie Parker, makes me think this game will be a lopsided victory for the home team.  Dr. Foreman will catch Bob Sanders cheating up after the first quarter, then starting bombing passes to Santonio Holmes for 140-yard touchdown passes.  In addition, this Colts team this year has just been awkward to watch.  Besides the football-beauty that is Peyton-to-Wayne, this team has little going for it this season.
Pick:  Steelers

Kansas City (+15) at San Diego

Kansas City has a 13th string running back, a former peanut at quarterback, and a star receiver who drops almost as many passes as Terrell Owens, but do they really lose by more than two touchdowns to a Norv Turner team?
Pick:  Chiefs

San Francisco (+9 1/2) at Arizona

I think I’ve gone with enough home teams with huge spreads at this time.  With Tim Hightower running like he just escaped from police custody and recently getting all-world wide receiver back, the Cardinals should win this game handily.  But holding J.T. O’Sullivan and Frank Gore to 10 points less?  The best defensive player in the game, Patrick Willis (P-Will!) will not let that happen…
Pick:  49ers

Yeah, I know it’s condensed, and yeah, I know it’s even late.  But look, when you’re hanging from Halloween and you’ve spent 3 out of 5 nights during the week going out looking for costume stuffs, you’d be pretty wiped out too.  So there!  And now… The Picks…

BUFFALO (-5 1/2) over New York Jets

CHICAGO (-12 1/2) over Detroit

CINCINNATI (+7 1/2) over Jacksonville

Baltimore (+1 1/2) over CLEVELAND

TENNESSEE (-5 1/2) over Green Bay

Tampa Bay (-8 1/2) over KANSAS CITY

ST. LOUIS (+3) over Arizona

Houston (+4 1/2) over MINNESOTA

Miami (+3 1/2) over DENVER

Atlanta (-3) over OAKLAND

NEW YORK GIANTS (-9) over Dallas

Philadelphia (-6 1/2) over SEATTLE

New England (+6) over Indianapolis

WASHINGTON (-2) over Pittsburgh

Last Week:

Me: 6-6

LVK: 6-6

Season:

Me: 53-58
LVK: 58-51

I did a lot of analysis last week, talked myself into some bad picks and managed to get 7 right. In my pick ‘em league, I had 8 right because I forgot to change my jets/KC pick and KC ended up covering the spread a la 3 Brett Favre interceptions. Weak Brett, very weak.

I’m going to throw in my fantasy sleepers for the week too. If you read my picks last week, you saw my top fantasy sleepers were Leon Washington, Matt Schaub (by the way, I ended up signing him and playing him last week instead of Eli Manning, even though I said I wouldn’t because he always hurts himself in the first quarter or before when he’s on my fantasy team), and Roscoe Parrish. I went 2 of 3 on these picks. Let’s see how I did

Leon Washington, RB NYJ - 67 yards Rushing, 3 Rec. 34 yards, 2 TD’s, 173 Return yards. In my PPR league that netted me 32 points, best on my team and 4th in the league overall last week. That’s a correct pick if I ever saw one.

Matt Schaub, QB HOU - 280 yards Passing, 3 TD’s. That’s a win right there.

Roscoe Parrish, WR BUF - 1 Rec 3 yards, 1 lost fumble. Whoops

Fantasy Sleepers - Last Week: 2-1 Overall: 2-1

This weeks sleepers

Anthony Fasano, TE MIA - If you need a Tight End this week, check out this fella. Denver has a terrible pass defense, and with Champ Bailey on the corner, look for Pennington to be checking down to slot receivers Ted Ginn or Greg Camarillo, whoever is not attached to Bailey, and Anthony Fasano. My prediction: 5 Rec 53 yards, 1 TD.

David Garrard, QB JAX - Garrard is a safe play this week at QB. He’s 81% owned, but most likely sits on the bench of whoever owns him (unless it’s a 2 QB league). My prediction: 278 yards Passing, 18 Rushing, 2 TD’s 0 INT’s

Greg Camarillo, WR MIA - Back to this Miami air attack for my final pick. Camarillo is only owned in 14% of Yahoo leagues but sits around the 30 catch 370 yard mark. If Champ Bailey isn’t tasked with shutting him down this week (and that’s a big IF), he should make his presence known to the shaky Denver secondary. My expectation is Bailey will be focusing on Ted Ginn, who is faster and more athletic than Camarillo. My prediction: 7 Rec 92 Yards, 1 TD

Onto my week 9 picks!

NY Jets (+5.5) over BUFFALO

Buffalo was brought down to earth last week with a hard loss to the Dolphins in Miami. The one item of interest I bring away from that is with Tom Brady out and the dolphins playing well against eastern foes, this is going to be an even more competitive division than I anticipated. I expect a bounce back week from Buffalo, but won’t put Roscoe Parrish on my fantasy team this week. Therefore I predict he will score a TD, and the Bills win by less than 6 points.

Detroit (+12.5) over CHICAGO

I can’t imagine Chicago a 12.5 point favorite over anyone, but this year against this Lions team I guess I’ll buy it. Matt Forte should run all over the field on Sunday as Detroit (and oh god I can’t believe I’m saying this) looks for an answer to stop Kyle Orton. Orton has tossed up a QB rating of 91.4. To put this in perspective, he’s tied 11th in this category with Donovan McNabb, and is better than both Mannings, Favre, Roethlisberger, Palmer, and Anderson. You want to talk paridy in the NFL, look at QB ratings around the league and you’ll see Chad Pennington, Kurt Warner, and Jason Campbell all ranked in the top 5. All this said, I’m taking the points.

Jacksonville (-7.5) over CINCINNATI

I will never live in Cincinnati. I have never once spelled that city correctly on the first try. Carson Palmer is out again, and last week they were blown out by the Texans to the tune of 35-6. Cincy is a perfect matchup for the Jags. The black and orange are ranked 28th against the run and allow an average QB rating over 96. David Garrard should be able to move the ball down the field in a ball control offense and score on every drive. Every drive I said!

Baltimore (+1.5) over CLEVELAND

A trend this week, I’m picking road teams. This will surely come back to haunt me. Baltimore and Cleveland play each other tough. In their last 15 matchups, the Ravens lead 8-7. I expect Baltimore to be able to run the ball effectively in this game with the Browns giving up, on average 141 yards rushing per game. Baltimore, on the other hand, runs the ball for 142 yards per game. The birds should control the tempo in this one against the toilet turds and win this one via a Derek Anderson sack, fumble, returned for a TD.

TENNESSEE (-5.5) over Green Bay

At this point, I don’t care who they’re playing. They went into Indy, a bitter division rival, and won going away. They’re just plain better than other teams right now and control the tempo. Last week, they proved they could do it with the passing game, keeping the Colts off balance the whole game. I would expect them to return to the rushing attack all day against the pack and their 25th ranked run defense.

Tampa Bay (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY

Tampa Bay is a better team than the Jets, and I took the Jets -13 over KC. Galloway is back in the mix for tampa, and although he didn’t do a whole lot against Dallas (neither did the rest of Tampa’s offense), I would expect Tampa to score some points and Galloway to make at least one big play. Expect turnovers to be the difference maker here and Tyler Thigpen to throw a few picks to this Pirate secondary.

Arizona (-3) over ST. LOUIS

We look to the sky in this NFC west matchup. Arizona should put a pounding on the Rams secondary, and with Steven Jackson optimistically questionable in this game, I wouldn’t expect St. Louis to come out of this one with a win. Arizona could be a 10 point favorite here and I’d still take them.

MINNESOTA (-4.5) over Houston

These teams haven’t faced each other since 2004, so game film study could be the difference maker here. The Vikings passing game is attrocious with a capital TROCIOUS, but in a game like this, I like the home team. Houston hasn’t won on the road this year, and will manage to lose by 7 despite Andre Johnson’s 176 yards receiving.

Miami (+3.5) over DENVER

I like this matchup for Miami, even on the road. Chad Pennington is ranked 5th in QB rating, and we saw what the Patriots’ high school quarterback did to the Broncos secondary. As long as Chad keeps it away from Champ Bailey, he’s looking at a +300 yard passing day with Ronnie Brown eclipsing the 100 yard mark on the ground.

Atlanta (-3) over OAKLAND

Let’s stick with road teams, shall we? Atlanta played Philly tough last week, though not quite tough enough to beat the spread. The Raiders are not the Eagles though, and after seeing rookie Joe Flacco hand it to Oakland last week, I wouldn’t expect much less from Matt Ryan. Oakland won’t have an answer for Roddy White or Michael Turner, and Atlanta will be leaving the west coast with a victory.

NY GIANTS (-9) over Dallas

Giants are 4-0 at home this year, and Dallas continued to struggle last week in a “wow we really dodged a bullet there” game against Tampa. The Cowboys ain’t the Cowboys with Brad Johnson under the center. Rumors are abound that Brooks Bollinger could see action if Johnson struggles early. What a mess in Big D, they won’t come out of the Big Apple with any questions answered.

Philadelphia (-6.5) over SEATTLE

This game is of particular interest to me, because I’ll be stuck watching it. Seahawks starting QB Matt Hasselbeck is not expected to play again, which means sacks and interceptions abound for Seneca Wallace. Good luck, pal. You’re going to need it against a team that looks like it could be playing in February as long as McNabb and Westbrook are in the lineup.

New England (+6) over INDIANAPOLIS

Indy will probably bounce back from last week’s loss to Tennessee with a good showing at home against the ailing Patriots. Every year this game is a must watch, and will be again this year. If for no other reason than to put on display two 2007 juggernauts, who in 2008, better resemble jugger-nots. I miss the Pats 2007 season, but I have to love the NFL overall for creating a system in which any team can win it all any given year. Nobody starts every season thinking “we’re the Kansas City Royals of football.”

WASHINGTON (+2) over Pittsburgh

I just want to see Washington win this one, and that’s my pick. This is a strength vs. strength matchup (Clinton Portis, top rusher in football against Pittsburgh’s top run defense.) It’s Monday night, winner makes the fewest errors. Campbell doesn’t turn the ball over and that will be the game.

Last week: 7-5 Overall: 58-51

Š

I simply don’t know what to make of the NFL anymore. I don’t care who you are, what your level of expertise is or how long you’ve been doing what you’re doing, there’s no way you’re hovered anywhere near 70% on correctly picking winners this year. It’s just impossible.

Vegas has recouped all their money and then some from the Patriots’ remarkable run last season, and one has to think they’re in on this. How can all these games end up so far off the general perceptions of them? The NFL has truly succeeded in having more parity than any other professional sport.

But that’s not what we’re here to talk about. We’re here to discuss how fantastic I’ve been in predicting everything that’s happened this season in the fantasy universe. And, now that we’re finished with that, we can get on to everything I missed:

Here’s what I got wrong:

1. Santana Moss, WR - Washington Redskins… Sort of…

He’s responded to me stating his washed-upedness with a terrific half-season so far, averaging over five catches a game and over 82 yards. But despite his yardage (658, 5th in NFL) and touchdowns (5, T-2nd), he submitted two awful performances in two consecutive weeks that almost made my points about him totally valid. In week 5 he didn’t register a catch, then came out in week 6 with a two catch, 22 yard performance. After this I thought my prediction had materialized exactly, but he recovered very well from this dip. However, with his hamstring ailing him as week 9 approaches, we’ll soon see what he has left for this season.

2. Michael Turner, RB - Atlanta Falcons… Sort of…

This is another guy who started of great, but has come very hard back down to earth. At the the semi-halfway point, he is still one of the highest rated fantasy football players in the game, with 655 rushing yards and five touchdowns. However, his receiving stats (3 catches for 11 yards) make him all but a liability in Point Per Reception (PPR) leagues. His stats are also slanted by the fact he broke out with an outrageous 220 yards in week 1. However, after we learned how absolutely pitiful the Detroit Lions would be this year, this achievement was diminished somewhat. There is also something to be said for the improvement of this team as a whole. With a reliable, talented quarterback leading the team and a group of hardworking players on the defensive and offensive side of the ball playing to the best of their abilities, running games can sometimes be good by association. Since his week 1 performance, Michael Turner has averaged only 73 yards per game with four scores in six games. He is averaging 4.5 yards per carry for the season, but since the first game, he’s averaging an entire yard less, only 3.5 ypc for the other 6 games. Not exactly ideal for a #1 fantasy back.
If you haven’t noticed, my ridiculous ego is preventing me from admitting total misses so far. We’ll see later if I can find something more complete that I missed.

3. Benjamin Watson, TE - New England Patriots

Speaking of total misses… I suggested that after the first 7 or so tight ends were taken, Tony Scheffler of Denver and Benjamin Watson from New England would be premier bargains and put up numbers comparable to the best tight ends in the league. Swing, and a miss. Not just a miss, a Jason Varitek, swinging at a change-up down and away from a great right-handed pitcher type of miss. After seven games, Big Benjamin has seven catches for 70 yards, or 1 catch for 10 yards per game. Yeah I’m going to go ahead and admit I missed that one. I will make the small point that tight-end loving Tom Brady has been injured all season, but nothing excuses that type of output. My apologies.

4. Who I told you to pass on…

In my reach for/pass on columns, I suggested that it was worth waiting and/or passing on Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson. Both guys are in the 30 catch/300 yard area, Smith having 4 touchdowns and Johnson 5. A healthy Jake Delhomme has contributed to Steve Smith’s consistency, and Calvin Johnson emerged much more quickly than most people including myself imagined. Now with Roy Williams in Dallas, he’s forced more into the spotlight than ever before. He’ll certainly see tougher coverage, but the guy’s so talented I’m not sure it will make one bit of difference. Whoops…

And now everyone’s favorite part… What I Got Right…

1. Kickers

Okay, okay. I know everyone who knows anything about fantasy football knows to avoid kickers until the second-to-last or last round, but this year’s crop of kickers is so unbelievably lop-sided I feel like it needs to be mentioned here. Let’s take a look at the top kickers in my commissioned leagues (3 points for most field goals, increasing with distance, and negative points for missed chip-shots and extra points):

1. Joe Nedney, SF

2. John Kasay, Car

3. Rian Lindell, Buf

4. Shaun Suisham, Was

5. John Carney, NYG

Alright, not a bad list. In fact, after the first couple of weeks, most of these kickers were owned in most Yahoo! leagues (the fantasy page I most often use). However, in their pre-rankings, and the kickers most often drafted early and often, these are the kickers, in their pre-ranked order.

1. Nick Folk, Dal

2. Shayne Graham, Cin

3. Adam Vinatieri, Ind

4. Nate Kaeding, SD

5. Stephen Gostkowski, NE

Not a match in the top 5? Okay, it happens. Let’s continue…

6. Josh Scobee, Jax

7. Rod Bironas, Ten

8. Phil Dawson, Cle

9. Neil Rackers, Ari

10. David Akers, Phi

Not a match in the top 10? Now that’s getting a tiny bit out of hand, but, I suppose it still happens. Moving on…

11. Mason Crosby, GB

12. Jeff Reed, Pit

13. Josh Brown, StL

14. Ryan Longwell, Min

15. Robbie Gould, Chi

16. Kris Brown, Hou

(No… I’m not kidding…)

17. Mike Nugent, NYG

And finally…

18. Shaun Suisham, Was

17 (SEVENTEEN!) kickers were pre-ranked higher than any of the top five highest-scoring kickers in the NFL so far. Not only that, but Suisham’s still only the fourth highest actual ranking kicker this season. Here’s where the rest of the guys fell in the preranks:

26. Joe Nedney, SF (Ranked #1)

23. John Kasay, Car (Ranked #2)

21. Rian Lindell, Buf (Ranked #3)

24. John Carney, NYG (Ranked #5)

The icing on the cake? Adam Vinatieri (Pre-Ranked #3 in kickers) is currently ranked #30 out of 30. That’s right. Dead… Last… You can’t make this stuff up.

2. My Draft Diary

Despite wasting 2 high picks on Tom Brady and Carson Palmer, I was able to get (In a PPR league!) Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Greg Jennings, Lee Evans, Chris Johnson (in the fourth-to-last round), picked up Chad Pennington and Matt Ryan as free agent backups at quarterback and am currently in 1st place in that league. In addition, my choice to pick up P-Will, Antonio Cromartie, DeMeco Ryans and an assortment of the best defensive players in the game has provided me with a squad of IDPs that can outscore anyone’s offense on any given week. I should give lectures on IDP, PPR leagues I swear to god.

3. Pass On: Willie Parker, Marvin Harrison, Tony Romo, Adrian Peterson

A few things: I realize Parker and Romo were only bad decisions so far because of injuries, but I don’t care, I’m taking credit for them. Marvin Harrison was a truly bad player to reach for this season. Finally, remember that I didn’t say pass on Adrian Peterson, I simply said to pick LDT first. I made a point of stating his higher potential value in PPR leagues, and his lack of competition with Michael Turner now gone. Adrian does not catch passes like LDT, has one serious knee injury in one year of playing, and has Chester Taylor to compete with still. You’re doing well if you got Peterson, you’re doing better if you got LDT.

4. Reggie Bush

First, I need to vent. My two highest paid players on my auction league team were Tom Brady and Reggie Bush. Both injured, and both would have had us in the top three in that league right now, without a doubt. Reggie Bush again (since this is a PPR league) was one of the top-scoring running backs, and our low-money picks such as DeSean Jackson, Derrick Mason and Chris Perry (we got decent performance out of him before benching him when he became ineffective and lost his job. We also only need to start one running back weekly) gave us plenty of points per week to contend seriously. Now, with the injury to Bush, I’m calling Shenanigans for everything and vetoing every trade for no reason because I’m just so angry at fantasy sports. It’s really sad to see, and I hate myself for it. But, what would you do?

Before I take off, here is the mid-season summary for you. The top five players at each position, and their stats in my PPR, IDP league (Overall Fantasy Ranking in Parentheses):

Running Backs:

(3) Reggie Bush - 294 yards rushing, 2 TDs. 42 catches, 366 yards, 3 TDs. 285 return yards, 3 TDs.

(4) Marion Barber - 611 yards rushing, 5 TDs. 32 catches, 276 yards, 2 TDs.

(6) Frank Gore - 629 yards rushing, 4 TDs. 32 catches, 311 yards, 1 TD. 1 2-point conversion.

(10) Clinton Portis - 944 yards rushing, 7 TDs. 11 catches, 77 yards.

(15) Matt Forte - 515 yards rushing, 4 TDs. 29 catches, 223 yards, 2 TDs.

Quarterbacks:

(1) Drew Brees - 2,563 yards, 15 TDs, 7 Ints.

(2) Philip Rivers - 2,038 yards, 19 TDs, 6 Ints, 2 2-point conversions.

(5) Aaron Rodgers - 1,668 yards, 12 TDs, 4 Ints. 113 yards rushing, 3 TDs.

(7) Kurt Warner - 2,089 yards, 14 TDs, 6 Ints.

(9) Jay Cutler - 1,862 yards, 13 TDs, 7 Ints. 84 yards rushing.

Wide Receivers:

(8) Santana Moss - 42 catches, 658 yards, 5 TDs. 114 return yards, 1 TD.

(11) Andre Johnson - 56 catches, 772 yards, 2 TDs.

(12) Roddy White - 43 catches, 679 yards, 5 TDs.

(13) Larry Fitzgerald - 43 catches, 661 yards, 5 TDs.

(18) Greg Jennings - 37 catches, 685 yards, 4 TDs.

Tight Ends:

Jason Witten - 46 catches, 549 yards, 2 TDs.

Antonio Gates - 30 catches, 403 yards, 5 TDs.

Chris Cooley - 40 catches, 451 yards, 1 TD.

Tony Gonzalez - 33 catches, 369 yards, 3 TDs.

Owen Daniels - 32 catches, 395 yards, 2 TDs.

Defensive Teams:

Chicago - 114 PA, 14 sacks, 1 safety, 10 Ints, 6 fumble recoveries, 5 TDs, 2 blocked kicks.

Tampa Bay - 114 PA, 14 sacks, 12 Ints, 3 fumble recoveries, 4 TDs, 1 blocked kick.

Philadelphia - 131 PA, 23 sacks, 1 safety, 8 Ints, 7 fumble recoveries, 2 TDs, 1 return TD.

Tennessee - 87 PA, 18 sacks, 12 Ints, 4 fumble recoveries, 2 TDs, 1 blocked kick.

Green Bay - 151 PA, 12 sacks, 13 Ints, 1 fumble recovery, 5 TDs, 1 blocked kick, 1 return TD.

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Don’t forget to email all fantasy questions and/or comments to bobby@sportsomedy.com